Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:58:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x38c5…dea8 sports 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$551 (-14%) realized −$539 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate40%12W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$366now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$561
other 5% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-27.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -20.2% -27.8% 40% 27% -24.1%
≤30d 30 -20.2% -27.8% 40% 27% -24.1%
≤90d 30 -20.2% -27.8% 40% 27% -24.1%
all 30 -20.2% -27.8% 40% 27% -24.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.8% 27% -24.1%
10% -34.7% 23% -31.3%
15% -41.0% 17% -38.0%
20% -46.8% 17% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$60 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$366
Realized−$539
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses12 / 18
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions2
Markets (closed)30 / 32
History coverage7d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs TDK 73¢ 76¢ $290 $300 +$10 (+3%)
StarCraft II: MaxPax vs SHIN (BO5) - WardiTV Championship Playoffs SHIN 25¢ 19¢ $88 $66 −$22 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set Handicap: Ambrogi (-1.5) vs Taverna (+1.5) Jun 17 $192 −$189 -99%
Set Handicap: Pegula (-1.5) vs Siniakova (+1.5) Jun 17 $213 −$210 -99%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $378 +$26 +7%
ITF Tauste: Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez vs Celia Cervino Ruiz Jun 16 $167 −$14 -9%
Set Handicap: Casanova (-1.5) vs Escurra (+1.5) Jun 16 $20 +$11 +52%
Mao Mushika vs. Yu-Chen Lin: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $19 +$4 +18%
ITF Kayseri: Aditya Kothari vs Muzammil Murtaza Jun 16 $160 +$3 +2%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 15 $84 +$102 +120%
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 15 $87 −$3 -4%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $304 −$300 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 +$5 +103%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of Duty Leag Jun 14 $148 +$36 +24%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $201 +$48 +24%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $13 −$13 -98%
CD Unión La Calera leading at halftime? Jun 14 $38 −$37 -98%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 14 $180 −$177 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Bartunkova vs Gauff Jun 14 $10 $0 -2%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Coco Gauff Jun 14 $697 −$24 -3%
Tarvet vs. Romano: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
FathUnionSport vs. Maghreb AS de Fès: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $9 +$1 +8%
Set Handicap: Almeida (-1.5) vs Rodriguez (+1.5) Jun 12 $174 +$2 +1%
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 3? Jun 12 $78 +$89 +114%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 170.5 Jun 12 $26 −$2 -6%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 158.5 Jun 12 $18 −$1 -8%
Set Handicap: Silva (-1.5) vs Petak (+1.5) Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Set Handicap: Bernet (-1.5) vs Schlagenhauf (+1.5) Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 3? Jun 12 $92 −$91 -99%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 12 $299 +$163 +55%
Set Handicap: Lajovic (-1.5) vs Batalla (+1.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bu vs. Riedi: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 11 $50 −$2 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
StarCraft II: MaxPax vs SHIN (BO5) - WardiTV Championship Playoffs BUY SHIN 26¢ $11 1h
StarCraft II: MaxPax vs SHIN (BO5) - WardiTV Championship Playoffs BUY SHIN 27¢ $37 1h
StarCraft II: MaxPax vs SHIN (BO5) - WardiTV Championship Playoffs BUY SHIN 24¢ $43 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs BUY TDK 73¢ $292 3h
Set Handicap: Ambrogi (-1.5) vs Taverna (+1.5) BUY Taverna 53¢ $192 15h
Set Handicap: Pegula (-1.5) vs Siniakova (+1.5) BUY Siniakova 56¢ $213 21h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh SELL Australia 99¢ $404 21h
Set Handicap: Casanova (-1.5) vs Escurra (+1.5) BUY Casanova 65¢ $20 44h
Mao Mushika vs. Yu-Chen Lin: Total Sets O/U 2.5 SELL Under 2.5 62¢ $23 44h
ITF Tauste: Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez vs Celia Cervino Ruiz BUY Celia Cervino Ruiz 54¢ $167 45h
ITF Kayseri: Aditya Kothari vs Muzammil Murtaza SELL Muzammil Murtaza 99¢ $163 45h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Australia 92¢ $378 2d
Mao Mushika vs. Yu-Chen Lin: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 51¢ $19 2d
ITF Kayseri: Aditya Kothari vs Muzammil Murtaza BUY Muzammil Murtaza 97¢ $160 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 45¢ $84 2d
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur SELL Damir Dzumhur 60¢ $84 2d
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Damir Dzumhur 61¢ $87 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $304 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 49¢ $5 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 36¢ $13 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 80¢ $201 3d
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of Duty Leag BUY Toronto KOI 80¢ $148 3d
CD Unión La Calera leading at halftime? BUY Yes 20¢ $38 3d
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco BUY Monaco 35¢ $134 3d
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco BUY Monaco 33¢ $46 3d
Set 1 Winner: Bartunkova vs Gauff BUY Gauff 50¢ $10 3d
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Coco Gauff BUY Coco Gauff 51¢ $697 3d
Tarvet vs. Romano: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 55¢ $6 5d
Set Handicap: Almeida (-1.5) vs Rodriguez (+1.5) SELL Almeida 59¢ $175 5d
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 170.5 SELL Under 54¢ $24 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $366.13 · official $366.13 (match) · 55 history records