Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:49:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
38 0x38c4…7c65 sports 790 markets active 0h ago coverage 143d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 143d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$790 (+1%) realized +$788 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate61%477W / 303L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day19.7pace
Fees−$710est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,522now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$753
7 days+$2,681
14 days+$1,610
30 days−$1,298
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$1,878
other 3% −$848
world 1% −$507
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 +3.4% -6.4% 51% 51% +9.0%
≤30d 110 -5.5% -14.5% 47% 47% -13.2%
≤90d 481 -2.4% -11.7% 54% 54% -11.7%
all 780 +3.6% -6.3% 61% 61% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 61% -8.9%
10% -15.3% 60% -17.7%
15% -23.5% 50% -25.6%
20% -31.0% 33% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +18% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$96 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$1,522
Realized+$788
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses477 / 303
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$710
Open positions10
Markets (closed)780 / 790
History coverage143d ⚠
Avg bet$104
Trades / day19.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 780 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? No 50¢ 50¢ $298 $295 −$3 (-1%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 2.5 Corners Under 45¢ 46¢ $246 $248 +$3 (+1%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: South Africa O/U 3.5 Corners Under 56¢ 55¢ $188 $185 −$3 (-2%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 5.5 Corners Under 44¢ 46¢ $162 $168 +$6 (+3%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Scotland 52¢ 52¢ $159 $160 +$2 (+1%)
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 50¢ $152 $150 −$1 (-1%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Under 42¢ 42¢ $108 $108 +$0 (+0%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 42¢ $101 $103 +$1 (+1%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Over 40¢ 40¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 5.5 Corners Over 50¢ 52¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 122 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 24 $157 +$146 +93%
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $84 +$144 +172%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $140 +$160 +114%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 24 $281 +$296 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $134 −$131 -98%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $189 −$186 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $67 −$66 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $109 +$73 +67%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $119 −$117 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $125 −$125 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $166 +$147 +89%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $213 +$143 +67%
England vs. Ghana: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $61 +$74 +122%
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 23 $70 −$69 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $161 −$159 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $117 +$145 +124%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 23 $54 −$54 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $130 −$130 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $156 +$282 +180%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $374 +$141 +38%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $414 +$303 +73%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $95 −$93 -98%
France vs. Iraq: Team to Take First Corner Jun 23 $42 +$12 +28%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 23 $299 +$299 +100%
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $358 −$358 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $126 −$124 -98%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $84 −$83 -99%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $64 −$62 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $208 −$204 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $481 +$309 +64%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $278 +$298 +107%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $80 −$79 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 22 $119 −$119 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $205 +$144 +70%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $254 +$301 +119%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 21 $173 −$173 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 21 $234 −$234 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $227 −$223 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $209 −$205 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $123 −$121 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $88 −$86 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $178 −$175 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 21 $237 +$221 +93%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $145 +$220 +152%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $179 −$176 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $161 +$144 +90%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $193 +$145 +75%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $213 +$143 +67%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $95 −$93 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $73 −$72 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 45¢ $54 1m
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 44¢ $53 4m
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 44¢ $38 8m
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 50¢ $7 10m
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 44¢ $1 11m
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 45¢ $8 12m
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 44¢ $16 13m
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 45¢ $10 14m
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 44¢ $9 16m
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 44¢ $46 16m
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 45¢ $177 17m
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Scotland 52¢ $161 25m
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 42¢ $41 32m
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $35 38m
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $65 39m
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 42¢ $30 46m
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: South Africa O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 56¢ $132 51m
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 42¢ $4 55m
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $103 57m
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: South Africa O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 56¢ $57 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 42¢ $33 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $154 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 50¢ $302 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $134 2h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Qatar 56¢ $189 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 31¢ $67 2h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $140 3h
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 36¢ $84 3h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 48¢ $281 3h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 51¢ $157 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,522.15 · official $1,522.15 (match) · 3500 history records