Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:52:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x38bf…28e2 finance 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care finance specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Covers last 2d only
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (1447 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$1,847 (+11%) realized +$2,382 · open −$535
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +92% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip
Net edge+34%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$968per market
Trades / day1447.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6,598now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% +$2,032
finance 28% −$401
other 2% −$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+73.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +92.1% +73.8% 50% 50% +15.0%
≤30d 2 +92.1% +73.8% 50% 50% +15.0%
≤90d 2 +92.1% +73.8% 50% 50% +15.0%
all 2 +92.1% +73.8% 50% 50% +15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1447.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +73.8% 50% +15.0%
10% +57.2% 50% +4.0%
15% ← realistic here +42.0% 50% -6.0%
20% +28.1% 50% -15.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +92% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
97.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,536 vs −$438 · ×5.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.79 per $1 lost it wins $5.79
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$6,598
Realized+$2,382
Unrealized−$535
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions22
Markets (closed)2 / 17
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$968
Trades / day1447.2
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? Up 89¢ 95¢ $826 $886 +$60 (+7%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? Yes 52¢ 70¢ $287 $392 +$105 (+37%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? Yes 26¢ 36¢ $282 $384 +$103 (+36%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? No 55¢ 78¢ $249 $351 +$102 (+41%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? No 86¢ 99¢ $300 $345 +$45 (+15%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? No 82¢ 64¢ $380 $295 −$84 (-22%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? No 95¢ 99¢ $282 $294 +$13 (+4%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $288 $292 +$4 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $284 $287 +$3 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $274 $278 +$3 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 81¢ 99¢ $227 $277 +$49 (+22%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? No 78¢ 98¢ $211 $266 +$55 (+26%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $258 $262 +$5 (+2%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? No 97¢ 100¢ $253 $259 +$6 (+2%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $247 $248 +$1 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? No 96¢ 97¢ $237 $240 +$3 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? No 74¢ 93¢ $181 $229 +$48 (+26%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? No 80¢ 92¢ $196 $226 +$30 (+15%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? No 91¢ 84¢ $173 $159 −$14 (-8%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? No 50¢ 30¢ $247 $145 −$102 (-41%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Yes 41¢ 22¢ $212 $113 −$100 (-47%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? Yes 12¢ 16¢ $65 $85 +$20 (+31%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $75 $75 +$0 (+0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $69 $70 +$0 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? Jun 19 $6,405 −$438 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $1,327 +$2,536 +191%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? BUY No 98¢ $10 0m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? BUY No 99¢ $10 0m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? BUY No 99¢ $10 1m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? SELL Yes 22¢ $4 1m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? BUY No 99¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? BUY Up 97¢ $8 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? BUY Up 97¢ $8 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? BUY Up 97¢ $8 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? SELL Up 98¢ $7 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? SELL Up 98¢ $7 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? SELL Up 98¢ $7 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? SELL Up 98¢ $7 1m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 3m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? SELL Yes 23¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? BUY Up 96¢ $8 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? BUY Up 96¢ $8 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? BUY Up 97¢ $8 5m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 5m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in June? BUY No 99¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? SELL Up 98¢ $7 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? SELL Up 98¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? SELL Up 98¢ $6 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? SELL Up 97¢ $0 5m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? SELL Yes 22¢ $4 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? BUY Up 90¢ $7 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? BUY Up 90¢ $7 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? BUY Up 90¢ $7 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? BUY Up 91¢ $7 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? BUY Up 90¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? BUY Up 90¢ $7 7m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,598.43 · official $6,598.42 (match) · 3500 history records