Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:09:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x38be…e67e other 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$104 (+17%) realized +$118 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%7W / 33L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$58
world 24% +$173
sports 23% +$1
crypto 11% −$28
economics 1% −$2
tech 1% −$5
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 40 -17.6% -25.4% 18% 18% +22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.4% 18% +22.2%
10% -32.5% 18% +10.5%
15% -39.1% 15% -0.2%
20% -45.0% 15% -10.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +35% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$6 · ×7.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized+$118
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses7 / 33
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)40 / 50
History coverage114d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-13%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Yes 9¢ 3¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? Mar 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by March 31? Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7? Mar 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 02 $5 −$2 -44%
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? Mar 02 $8 −$1 -17%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $10 −$10 -100%
US forces enter Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: ALGO Esports vs Omega (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Feb 28 $5 +$10 +207%
Will Kasımpaşa SK win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Will FK Rostov win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Feb 28 $14 −$14 -100%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming (BO5) - LCP Pl Feb 28 $5 +$18 +363%
LoL: LOS vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - CBLOL Cup Playoffs Feb 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 28 $2 $0 -6%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $20 +$91 +454%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $20 +$113 +565%
Will there be 8–10 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Feb 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be 16–18 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Feb 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Niagara Purple Eagles (-1.5) Feb 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-02-22? Feb 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs PARIVISION (BO5) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoff Feb 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-22? Feb 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Hillary Clinton Testify to Congress about Epstein? Feb 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Feb 22 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-02-22? Feb 22 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, Feb 22 $10 +$22 +223%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $5 +$21 +426%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Feb 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoff Feb 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Feb 21 $17 −$3 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Feb 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Feb 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Feb 21 $28 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Feb 21 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Feb 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a BUY 3¢ $21 53m
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will Spain win on 202 BUY 0¢ $10 53m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY 2¢ $57 54m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 57m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 58m
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 58m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 15¢ $77 59m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will New Zealand win on 2026- BUY 1¢ $26 59m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $41 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 87d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by March 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 87d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 87d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 105d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me SELL Yes 3¢ $3 105d
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 105d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 107d
US forces enter Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 107d
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-02-28? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 107d
Counter-Strike: ALGO Esports vs Omega (BO3) - European Pro League Seri SELL Omega 100¢ $15 107d
Will Kasımpaşa SK win on 2026-02-28? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 107d
Will FK Rostov win on 2026-02-28? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 107d
Counter-Strike: ALGO Esports vs Omega (BO3) - European Pro League Seri BUY Omega 33¢ $5 107d
Will Kasımpaşa SK win on 2026-02-28? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 107d
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-02-28? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 107d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY Yes 5¢ $5 107d
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 4¢ $14 107d
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming (BO5) - LCP Pl SELL Deep Cross Gaming 100¢ $23 107d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 107d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.79 · official $290.79 · 73 history records