Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:37:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x38bd…b8f3 other 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$136 (-6%) realized −$127 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate62%25W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$447now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$233
sports 25% −$253
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -11.4% -19.9% 62% 55% -10.0%
≤30d 40 -11.4% -19.9% 62% 55% -10.0%
≤90d 40 -11.4% -19.9% 62% 55% -10.0%
all 40 -11.4% -19.9% 62% 55% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 55% -10.0%
10% -27.5% 38% -18.6%
15% -34.5% 20% -26.5%
20% -40.9% 10% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$34 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$447
Realized−$127
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses25 / 15
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions9
Markets (closed)40 / 49
History coverage5d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $92 $89 −$3 (-3%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? No 80¢ 78¢ $76 $75 −$1 (-2%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? No 86¢ 86¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? No 83¢ 82¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 77¢ 76¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 55¢ 55¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $19 $15 −$4 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $61 −$52 -84%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$27 +27%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $100 +$7 +8%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $95 +$133 +140%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$8 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 +$26 +73%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $70 +$14 +21%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $93 −$92 -99%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $17 −$17 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $71 +$32 +46%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $23 +$6 +24%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $99 +$12 +12%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $38 +$49 +131%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $59 +$12 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $111 +$53 +48%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $58 +$8 +13%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $48 +$12 +24%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $35 +$6 +18%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $59 −$59 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $43 −$43 -99%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $50 +$19 +38%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $74 +$5 +6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8 +$3 +32%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $70 +$13 +18%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $17 +$4 +22%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $7 −$5 -68%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $116 −$8 -7%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $57 +$31 +55%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $21 +$5 +23%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $65 +$4 +6%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 +$6 +27%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $4 +$1 +30%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $17 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Uzbekistan 0¢ $0 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 77¢ $30 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $50 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $52 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 83¢ $37 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 91¢ $128 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 26¢ $10 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 86¢ $50 2h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $76 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $93 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $71 2h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 61¢ $7 2h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 98¢ $108 2h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 62¢ $17 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $53 6h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 6h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $100 14h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $42 14h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $15 22h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 83¢ $34 22h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $49 22h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $20 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $35 22h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $17 22h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $78 22h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 45¢ $7 27h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $23 30h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 89¢ $99 30h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $31 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $446.59 · official $446.60 (match) · 98 history records