Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:44:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

38
0x38b4…3840
weather · 78 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$164 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$230 · open +$36
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$611
Realized−$230
Unrealized+$36
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses32 / 45
Est. fees paid−$82
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 78
History coverage62d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day30.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 77 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$237
14 days−$276
30 days−$176
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Australia 58¢ 62¢ $576 $611 +$36 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $66 −$4 -5%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $1,013 +$54 +5%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $120 −$18 -15%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 13 $316 −$9 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $280 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $156 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 12? Jun 13 $87 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? Jun 13 $289 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $206 −$13 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $26 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $119 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $14 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $311 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $44 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $262 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 11? Jun 12 $531 −$3 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $291 −$3 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $341 −$2 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $360 −$110 -30%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $129 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $82 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $43 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $109 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $250 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $118 −$57 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $157 −$80 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $42 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 10 $27 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $13 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $34 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $49 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $32 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 10? Jun 10 $27 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $12 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $31 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $36 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 09 $17 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 09 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C or below on June 9 Jun 09 $11 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 09 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 9? Jun 09 $18 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 9? Jun 09 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $18 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $16 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 9? Jun 09 $20 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 51% +$75
weather 49% −$270
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 67¢ $62 28m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 62¢ $81 37m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 59¢ $89 38m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 59¢ $26 38m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 57¢ $19 41m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 57¢ $6 41m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 58¢ $121 41m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 58¢ $80 41m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 56¢ $1 47m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 56¢ $16 47m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 55¢ $0 48m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 55¢ $2 48m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 55¢ $2 49m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 55¢ $6 49m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 55¢ $2 49m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 55¢ $4 50m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 55¢ $9 51m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 55¢ $1 51m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 55¢ $1 52m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 55¢ $1 53m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 55¢ $1 53m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 55¢ $0 54m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 55¢ $0 54m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 55¢ $2 55m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 55¢ $2 55m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 55¢ $2 55m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 56¢ $17 55m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 55¢ $8 55m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 57¢ $27 56m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 55¢ $110 56m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -2.5% -11.8% 42% 2% -12.9%
≤30d 71 -2.0% -11.3% 41% 3% -11.2%
≤90d 77 -0.4% -9.9% 42% 6% -11.7%
all 77 -0.4% -9.9% 42% 6% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover30.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 6% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 4% -20.2%
15% -26.4% 4% -27.9%
20% -33.6% 4% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $611.25 · official $611.25 (match) · 1905 history records