Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:03:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x38b3…bc8e crypto 139 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (666 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$404 (-16%) realized −$325 · open −$79
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate17%22W / 106L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day666.3pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$655
other 25% +$109
world 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (666 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 128 -5.2% -14.2% 17% 16% -30.2%
≤30d 128 -5.2% -14.2% 17% 16% -30.2%
≤90d 128 -5.2% -14.2% 17% 16% -30.2%
all 128 -5.2% -14.2% 17% 16% -30.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover666.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 16% -30.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 14% -36.9%
15% -29.9% 13% -43.0%
20% -36.8% 13% -48.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +40% → late -50% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$11 · ×2.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$325
Unrealized−$79
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses22 / 106
Open positions11
Markets (closed)128 / 139
History coverage1d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day666.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $57 $27 −$30 (-52%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-99%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-99%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-99%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 102 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$7 -40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $516 +$132 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$14 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $9 +$21 +251%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET Jun 16 $101 −$75 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $110 −$110 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$9 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$29 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $62 −$58 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $33 −$31 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$26 +166%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $44 −$41 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $32 −$30 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$11 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $32 −$10 -30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $43 −$10 -24%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$18 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$9 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$44 +455%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $48 −$46 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -94%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $38 +$12 +32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $3 8m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $3 8m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $57 9m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 9m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $3 10m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $3 10m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $3 10m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $3 21m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $3 22m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 24m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $3 25m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $3 25m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $3 25m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 29m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 32m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 33m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 33m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $3 34m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $3 34m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $3 38m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 39m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $3 39m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $37 39m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $3 39m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $3 40m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $3 40m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 42m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $648 43m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 43m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 45m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.99 · official $39.99 (match) · 793 history records