Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:06:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
38 0x38b0…aaca other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 390d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$756 (+4%) realized +$163 · open +$593
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$1,912per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$16,567now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$139
7 days+$246
14 days+$246
30 days+$246
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$496
other 8% +$244
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +43.4% +29.7% 80% 60% +11.5%
≤30d 5 +43.4% +29.7% 80% 60% +11.5%
≤90d 5 +43.4% +29.7% 80% 60% +11.5%
all 6 +19.5% +8.1% 67% 50% +2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.1% 50% +2.0%
10% -2.2% 50% -7.8%
15% -11.7% 50% -16.7%
20% -20.3% 50% -24.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$61 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.2 per $1 lost it wins $2.2
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

390d coverage
Net worth$16,567
Realized+$163
Unrealized+$593
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)6 / 9
History coverage390d
Avg bet$1,912
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 84¢ 88¢ $15,705 $16,299 +$594 (+4%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $170 $168 −$2 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $166 +$6 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$58 +58%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 21 $509 −$23 -5%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $178 +$97 +55%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 +$107 +105%
Dogecoin all time high before 2026? May 28 $99 −$99 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $66 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $107 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $172 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $166 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 99¢ $160 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $15,070 42h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $504 43h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 69¢ $486 43h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 43h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $77 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 50¢ $77 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 77¢ $80 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 77¢ $126 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $509 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 5d
Dogecoin all time high before 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $99 390d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,567.19 · official $16,567.19 (match) · 22 history records