Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:45:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
38 0x38b0…dd47 crypto 114 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,856 (+6%) realized +$8,405 · open −$1,549
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate34%30W / 57L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$952per market
Trades / day20.9pace
Fees−$190est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$39,248now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$383
7 days+$2,103
14 days+$5,310
30 days+$5,663
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$1,736
crypto 34% +$2,116
sports 10% −$247
finance 7% +$653
world 6% +$3,294
politics 1% −$71
tech 0% +$206
economics 0% −$95
culture 0% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +6.5% -3.7% 43% 43% +8.6%
≤30d 30 +25.3% +13.4% 43% 43% +16.4%
≤90d 87 -8.9% -17.5% 34% 32% +2.0%
all 87 -8.9% -17.5% 34% 32% +2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.5% 32% +2.0%
10% -25.4% 26% -7.8%
15% ← realistic here -32.6% 23% -16.7%
20% -39.2% 21% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$1,160) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -32% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$759 vs −$300 · ×2.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$39,248
Realized+$8,405
Unrealized−$1,549
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses30 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$190
Open positions27
Markets (closed)87 / 114
History coverage63d
Avg bet$952
Trades / day20.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $13,316 $15,683 +$2,367 (+18%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $13,675 $11,262 −$2,413 (-18%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5,610 $5,329 −$280 (-5%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $4,335 $3,392 −$944 (-22%)
Will USD/JPY hit 120 (Low) in 2026? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $1,142 $1,232 +$90 (+8%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,008 $792 −$216 (-21%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $500 $536 +$36 (+7%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 21? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $350 $242 −$108 (-31%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $91 $146 +$55 (+61%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $105 $120 +$15 (+14%)
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $115 $112 −$2 (-2%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $80 $61 −$19 (-24%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December? Yes 14¢ 8¢ $110 $60 −$50 (-45%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+14%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $40 $52 +$11 (+27%)
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 3¢ 24¢ $5 $41 +$36 (+712%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 3¢ $114 $40 −$74 (-65%)
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $25 $34 +$8 (+33%)
Will USD/JPY hit 110 (Low) in 2026? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $16 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $31 $15 −$16 (-51%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $18 $14 −$4 (-23%)
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,000-$5,400 in June? Yes 15¢ 1¢ $49 $3 −$45 (-93%)
Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $754 +$415 +55%
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 16 $415 +$210 +51%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $607 −$195 -32%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $367 −$191 -52%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 16 $28 −$26 -95%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $546 +$169 +31%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $673 +$627 +93%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $726 +$274 +38%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $3,010 +$490 +16%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $418 +$882 +211%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $359 −$274 -76%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $73 −$36 -50%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $117 −$116 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $316 −$32 -10%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $110 −$108 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $60 −$58 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $46 −$45 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $62 −$60 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $92 −$90 -98%
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 12 $1 +$7 +569%
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Jun 11 $2,023 +$259 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $443 +$55 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $970 −$38 -4%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $1,479 −$24 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $794 +$3,215 +405%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $955 +$1,597 +167%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 28 $645 −$178 -28%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 28 $159 +$216 +136%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 24? May 21 $2,121 −$476 -22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 23? May 21 $2,220 −$806 -36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 18? May 17 $1,440 −$1,327 -92%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 19? May 15 $1,136 −$505 -44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 15? May 14 $1,661 −$529 -32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 13? May 13 $1,484 −$935 -63%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 12? May 12 $790 +$436 +55%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 17? May 11 $1,495 −$1,495 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 11? May 10 $1,424 +$1,103 +77%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 10? May 10 $1,464 +$4,837 +330%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 10? May 06 $1,651 −$631 -38%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 6? May 06 $1,160 −$841 -72%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 06 $504 +$223 +44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 10? May 06 $1,335 −$744 -56%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 8? May 06 $1,531 −$1,079 -70%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 7? May 05 $1,684 −$1,329 -79%
Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV in May? May 05 $17 +$20 +120%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 4? May 04 $1,605 −$125 -8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 6? May 04 $1,582 −$680 -43%
Will Arnold Cassola be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the May 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 03 $236 −$21 -9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 03 $172 +$11 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 82¢ $408 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 52¢ $762 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $754 2h
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 5¢ $177 4h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 42¢ $413 5h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 18¢ $176 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 5¢ $373 12h
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 7¢ $255 13h
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 8¢ $1 13h
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 8¢ $2 13h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 36¢ $367 13h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $607 13h
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 9¢ $10 13h
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 8¢ $75 20h
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 8¢ $51 21h
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 8¢ $14 21h
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 7¢ $7 24h
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 7¢ $7 24h
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 7¢ $7 24h
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 7¢ $6 25h
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 0¢ $0 27h
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 0¢ $0 27h
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 0¢ $0 27h
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 0¢ $0 27h
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 0¢ $0 27h
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 0¢ $0 27h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 80¢ $716 29h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 60¢ $546 38h
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 3¢ $28 38h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $515 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39,247.50 · official $39,210.13 (match) · 1405 history records