Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:27:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x38af…68bc sports 31 markets active 3d ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5 (-4%) realized −$4 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate50%14W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$22
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$14
sports 46% +$4
other 2% +$3
tech 1% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -11.2% -19.7% 44% 39% -37.8%
≤30d 24 -6.9% -15.7% 50% 38% -12.6%
≤90d 28 -9.6% -18.2% 50% 39% -14.4%
all 28 -9.6% -18.2% 50% 39% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 39% -14.4%
10% -26.0% 32% -22.6%
15% -33.1% 25% -30.1%
20% -39.7% 18% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses14 / 14
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)28 / 31
History coverage65d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? Yes 49¢ 7¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +134%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 13 $0 +$1 +260%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $21 +$3 +14%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $7 +$3 +53%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 $0 +40%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $5 +$2 +31%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $6 −$3 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 08 $20 +$20 +100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -58%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 07 $1 $0 +8%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Apr 10 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Apr 10 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Apr 10 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Apr 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 15¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 10¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $2 3d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 37¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 23¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 94¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 71¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 83¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Team Falcons 17¢ $0 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 33¢ $1 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 10¢ $0 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 63¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 56¢ $3 6d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 71¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 75¢ $4 6d
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 6d
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 6d
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 7d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Legacy 76¢ $5 7d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY paiN 46¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $15 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $16 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.11 · official $2.11 (match) · 74 history records