Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:24:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x38ac…9f66 crypto 148 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (138 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$3,292 (+100%) realized +$2,834 · open +$458
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +106% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +59% what you keep after slip
Net edge+59%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%70W / 75L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day137.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$550now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$3,740
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (138 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+86.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 139 +101.6% +82.4% 49% 49% +79.7%
≤30d 145 +106.5% +86.8% 48% 48% +83.9%
≤90d 145 +106.5% +86.8% 48% 48% +83.9%
all 145 +106.5% +86.8% 48% 48% +83.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover137.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +86.8% 48% +83.9%
10% ← realistic here +68.9% 48% +66.3%
15% +52.6% 48% +50.2%
20% +37.7% 46% +35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +103% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +106% · $-wt +103% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +85% → late +128% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$18 · ×3.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.37 per $1 lost it wins $3.37
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$550
Realized+$2,834
Unrealized+$458
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses70 / 75
Open positions3
Markets (closed)145 / 148
History coverage7d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day137.6
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Up 8¢ 50¢ $76 $505 +$429 (+562%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Up 17¢ 50¢ $13 $38 +$25 (+197%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Up 20¢ 50¢ $3 $8 +$5 (+152%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 73 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 22 $9 +$11 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 22 $14 +$6 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$10 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 21 $35 −$20 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 21 $6 +$24 +440%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 21 $41 +$46 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 21 $14 +$16 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 21 $21 +$22 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $35 +$35 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 21 $9 +$11 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 21 $30 +$31 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 20 $27 +$33 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 20 $49 +$54 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 20 $29 +$31 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 20 $67 +$73 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$35 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $11 +$49 +440%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 20 $21 +$59 +281%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 20 $72 −$11 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$44 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $21 +$99 +471%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 19 $28 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $41 +$44 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$99 +471%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 19 $31 +$59 +187%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 19 $31 +$49 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $17 +$73 +425%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$99 +471%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$99 +471%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$99 +471%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $17 −$16 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$99 +471%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$99 +471%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $6 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $6 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $8 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $7 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $6 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $8 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $8 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $7 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $7 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $6 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $3 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $550.45 · official $550.45 (match) · 1039 history records