Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:15:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x38aa…f316 sports 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$33 (-0%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate11%3W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$254per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 38% −$23
politics 25% −$2
other 12% −$6
economics 10% −$1
crypto 10% −$1
tech 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 67% 0% -9.4%
all 28 -5.7% -14.7% 11% 4% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 4% -9.9%
10% -22.8% 4% -18.5%
15% -30.3% 4% -26.4%
20% -37.1% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses3 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage158d
Avg bet$254
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $6 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on April 25? May 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 April 13-19? Apr 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 14 $14 $0 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Feb 28 $3 +$1 +43%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 17 $326 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Jan 17 $332 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 17 $375 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 16 $343 −$1 -0%
Pelicans vs. Pacers Jan 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 16 $377 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 16 $379 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 15 $359 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 15 $372 $0 -0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 15 $379 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 14 $358 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 14 $340 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? Jan 13 $374 −$1 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 13 $336 $0 -0%
Will Alaves win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 13 $366 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 12 $379 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? Jan 12 $374 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jan 10 $165 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 09 $376 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Jan 09 $371 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 08 $300 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 08 $301 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $7 1h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $6 1h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $6 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on April 25? BUY No 100¢ $6 54d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 April 13-19? BUY No 100¢ $8 62d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 93d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 104d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 70¢ $3 108d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $326 148d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $326 149d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $331 149d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $332 149d
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 99¢ $374 149d
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 99¢ $375 149d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 99¢ $343 149d
Pelicans vs. Pacers BUY Pelicans 42¢ $21 150d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 99¢ $343 150d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? SELL No 100¢ $376 150d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $377 150d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $379 150d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $379 150d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $358 150d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $359 151d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $371 151d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $372 151d
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $378 151d
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $379 151d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes $5 152d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $358 152d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $358 152d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.12 · official $7.12 (match) · 70 history records