trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 3 | -27.5% | -34.4% | 0% | 0% | -33.0% |
| ≤90d | 3 | -27.5% | -34.4% | 0% | 0% | -33.0% |
| all | 20 | -12.6% | -20.9% | 40% | 30% | -21.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -20.9% | 30% | -21.6% |
| 10% | -28.5% | 10% | -29.1% |
| 15% | -35.4% | 10% | -36.0% |
| 20% | -41.7% | 10% | -42.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 3¢ | $348 | $595 | +$247 (+71%) |
| Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $367 | $347 | −$20 (-5%) |
| Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $177 | $213 | +$36 (+20%) |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $189 | $211 | +$23 (+12%) |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $241 | $209 | −$32 (-13%) |
| Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $175 | $119 | −$56 (-32%) |
| Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $124 | $107 | −$17 (-14%) |
| Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $69 | $103 | +$34 (+50%) |
| Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $120 | $90 | −$30 (-25%) |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? | Yes | 57¢ | 56¢ | $66 | $66 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $70 | $55 | −$15 (-21%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? | Jun 05 | $133 | −$60 | -45% |
| Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? | May 31 | $151 | −$37 | -24% |
| Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? | May 26 | $180 | −$24 | -13% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | Mar 19 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| UFC Fight Night: Dustin Jacoby vs. Julius Walker (Light Heavyweight, M | Mar 19 | $22 | −$22 | -100% |
| Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch? | Mar 19 | $8 | −$2 | -23% |
| Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? | Mar 17 | $646 | −$316 | -49% |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Mar 16 | $176 | +$34 | +19% |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Mar 14 | $36 | −$17 | -47% |
| UFC Fight Night: Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Bantamweight, M | Feb 08 | $30 | +$20 | +64% |
| UFC Fight Night: Muin Gafurov vs. Jakub Wiklacz (Bantamweight, Prelims | Feb 08 | $57 | −$7 | -12% |
| UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Amir Albazi (Flyweight, Main Card | Feb 08 | $111 | −$21 | -19% |
| UFC Fight Night: Alex Morono vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, Preli | Feb 08 | $82 | +$18 | +22% |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | Jan 30 | $6 | −$5 | -90% |
| Moonbirds FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Jan 30 | $43 | +$6 | +14% |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Jan 30 | $61 | +$9 | +15% |
| Moonbirds FDV above $300M one day after launch? | Jan 29 | $23 | −$2 | -10% |
| Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Jan 29 | $660 | +$50 | +8% |
| Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? | Jan 24 | $15 | +$20 | +134% |
| Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Jan 21 | $158 | +$8 | +5% |