Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:58:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x38a8…b574 world 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 463d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate46%12W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$1
other 31% −$2
politics 6% $0
economics 3% $0
tech 3% +$1
finance 2% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 +1.3% -8.4% 30% 10% -9.2%
≤90d 10 +1.3% -8.4% 30% 10% -9.2%
all 26 -0.4% -9.9% 46% 4% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 4% -9.3%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.4% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

463d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses12 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage463d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $48 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $4 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 27 $7 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $11 +$1 +12%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $47 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $52 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $47 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $7 $0 +6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $7 −$1 -11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $3 $0 +6%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times June 27–July 4? Aug 10 $10 +$1 +5%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Aug 10 $9 +$1 +7%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 01 $3 $0 +1%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 01 $6 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 23 $9 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 265–279 times June 20–27? Jun 23 $2 −$1 -44%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 22 $11 −$1 -9%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will Jhonny Fernández win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 22 $9 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 22 $2 $0 +8%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 21 $12 $0 +3%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 29 $1 $0 +6%
Will Texas Tech win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 24 $11 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $48 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $48 5h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 11h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $0 27d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $2 27d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $2 27d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $2 27d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 27d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $7 27d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes $1 27d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes $4 27d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes $3 27d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes $4 27d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes $11 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 79¢ $4 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 79¢ $42 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 79¢ $27 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 79¢ $20 27d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 30¢ $52 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 30¢ $52 28d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $46 28d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $1 28d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $42 28d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $5 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 104 history records