Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:57:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x38a8…865a other 413 markets active 0h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,345 (-10%) realized −$1,120 · open −$225
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate25%96W / 293L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day27.4pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$184now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$60
7 days−$86
14 days−$215
30 days−$428
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$622
world 18% −$156
politics 18% −$283
tech 10% −$158
sports 4% +$52
crypto 3% −$28
economics 2% −$18
finance 2% −$50
culture 2% −$57
weather 2% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -9.4% -18.1% 16% 2% -12.7%
≤30d 182 -9.5% -18.1% 12% 1% -14.6%
≤90d 383 -12.5% -20.8% 23% 9% -17.5%
all 389 -12.0% -20.4% 25% 10% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.4% 10% -17.4%
10% ← realistic here -28.0% 4% -25.3%
15% -35.0% 1% -32.5%
20% -41.3% 1% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 41% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$184
Realized−$1,120
Unrealized−$225
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses96 / 293
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions24
Markets (closed)389 / 413
History coverage96d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day27.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 389 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-10%)
Will Apyx launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $32 $22 −$10 (-32%)
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by June 30? Yes 14¢ 6¢ $47 $18 −$29 (-61%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-5%)
Will Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 AL East title? Yes 23¢ 19¢ $20 $16 −$3 (-16%)
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 16¢ 9¢ $20 $11 −$9 (-44%)
Will Bank of America (BAC) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $1.6B? Yes 21¢ 6¢ $27 $8 −$19 (-69%)
Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $12 $8 −$4 (-32%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30? Yes 11¢ 3¢ $33 $8 −$25 (-76%)
Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $7.0B? No 18¢ 6¢ $22 $7 −$15 (-68%)
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 10¢ 3¢ $20 $7 −$13 (-64%)
Will Neutrl launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $12 $5 −$7 (-57%)
Will Noble launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $12 $5 −$7 (-60%)
Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027? No 20¢ 8¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-62%)
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day? Yes 13¢ 6¢ $7 $3 −$4 (-55%)
Will Russia capture Bilytske by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $7 $3 −$4 (-58%)
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Yes 21¢ 3¢ $21 $3 −$18 (-86%)
Will Davido perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Yes 15¢ 2¢ $15 $2 −$13 (-84%)
Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between 1.5% and 3%? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-23%)
Will Myke Towers perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Yes 16¢ 3¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-80%)
Will Symbiotic launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 2¢ $8 $2 −$7 (-81%)
Will Valantis launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $14 $1 −$13 (-90%)
Will Arcium launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 13¢ 2¢ $8 $1 −$7 (-87%)
Will Citigroup (C) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $2.3B? No 14¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $47 $0 -0%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 17 $2 $0 -7%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? Jun 17 $30 −$6 -22%
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election Jun 17 $33 $0 -1%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $20 −$1 -3%
Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between 0% and 1.5%? Jun 17 $34 −$7 -21%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $2 $0 -3%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will the US federal government take a stake in Taiwan Semiconductor Ma Jun 17 $20 −$3 -16%
Will Yeet launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $30 −$1 -2%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 17 $16 −$1 -7%
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? Jun 17 $39 +$1 +3%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $23 +$1 +4%
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 0% and 2% in May? Jun 16 $52 −$10 -19%
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 2% and 4% in May? Jun 16 $6 −$2 -36%
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $18 $0 -0%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 16 $29 −$1 -4%
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by September 30, 2026? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 16 $101 −$8 -8%
Will MagicBlock launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 16 $22 $0 -1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $57 $0 -1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 16 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Reya launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 16 $38 −$1 -1%
Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? Jun 15 $19 $0 +1%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $49 +$51 +106%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 15 $23 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 14 $60 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 14 $49 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $34 $0 +0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $172 −$10 -6%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $85 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $80 $0 +0%
Will MagicBlock launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $7 −$3 -44%
Will Faker win a Finals MVP Award at an international event in 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 -3%
Will Atlanta Braves win the 2026 NL East title? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -11%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $202 −$34 -17%
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Jun 12 $166 $0 +0%
Will Oura's market cap be between $7.5B and $10B at market close on IP Jun 12 $63 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 26m
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 1h
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 1h
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 10¢ $8 2h
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 3h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $18 4h
Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027? BUY No 20¢ $10 4h
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 3 BUY Yes 16¢ $20 4h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 4h
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 40¢ $2 4h
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 5h
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 5h
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 5h
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 41¢ $2 5h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 5h
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $14 6h
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $20 7h
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $20 7h
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election SELL No 15¢ $4 7h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 7h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 16¢ $15 7h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 7h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 7h
Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between 0% and 1.5%? SELL Yes 21¢ $9 7h
Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between 0% and 1.5%? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 8h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 10h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $184.34 · official $184.34 (match) · 2816 history records