Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:02:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
38 0x38a7…c141 world 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$121 (-20%) realized −$96 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$132now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 91d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 30% −$73
crypto 26% −$25
other 19% +$102
finance 16% −$100
politics 8% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-44.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 3 -25.1% -32.2% 33% 33% -10.6%
all 5 -38.8% -44.7% 20% 20% -33.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.7% 20% -33.6%
10% -50.0% 20% -40.0%
15% -54.8% 20% -45.8%
20% -59.2% 20% -51.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$56 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$132
Realized−$96
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage91d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 51¢ 43¢ $157 $132 −$25 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump say "Mission Accomplished" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Kanye release BULLY by March 27? Mar 28 $119 +$102 +86%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 28 $90 −$55 -61%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Mar 27 $97 −$18 -19%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 51¢ $162 1h
Will Trump say "Mission Accomplished" during Address to the Nation? BUY Yes 14¢ $50 85d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 7¢ $35 89d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $79 90d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? BUY No 18¢ $100 90d
Will Kanye release BULLY by March 27? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 90d
Will Kanye release BULLY by March 27? SELL No 88¢ $221 90d
Will Kanye release BULLY by March 27? BUY No 39¢ $98 91d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $97 91d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 18¢ $90 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $132.42 · official $132.42 (match) · 11 history records