Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:34:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x38a1…3154 weather 913 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d only
✗ bot/MM pace (283 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$557 (+8%) realized +$405 · open +$152
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate51%395W / 383L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day282.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$993now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$166
7 days−$7
14 days+$252
30 days+$252
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$404
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (283 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 727 -10.2% -18.8% 48% 43% -10.3%
≤30d 778 -2.8% -12.0% 51% 46% -6.3%
≤90d 778 -2.8% -12.0% 51% 46% -6.3%
all 778 -2.8% -12.0% 51% 46% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover282.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 46% -6.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 38% -15.2%
15% -28.1% 11% -23.4%
20% -35.2% 4% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$993
Realized+$405
Unrealized+$152
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses395 / 383
Open positions134
Markets (closed)778 / 913
History coverage9d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day282.7
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 134 History 778 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? Yes 2¢ 100¢ $2 $111 +$109 (+4914%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? No 74¢ 100¢ $18 $25 +$6 (+35%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? No 75¢ 92¢ $19 $23 +$4 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? No 75¢ 92¢ $19 $23 +$4 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 16? No 74¢ 88¢ $19 $22 +$3 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? No 76¢ 85¢ $19 $22 +$2 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? No 73¢ 84¢ $18 $21 +$3 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 15? No 76¢ 100¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+31%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 15? No 76¢ 100¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? No 73¢ 100¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 15? No 72¢ 100¢ $14 $20 +$6 (+38%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? No 76¢ 100¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+31%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? No 73¢ 90¢ $16 $19 +$4 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 16? No 81¢ 92¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? Yes 4¢ 24¢ $3 $18 +$15 (+495%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? No 71¢ 92¢ $14 $18 +$4 (+29%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? No 72¢ 86¢ $14 $17 +$3 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 16? No 77¢ 64¢ $19 $16 −$3 (-16%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 16? No 72¢ 78¢ $14 $16 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 15? No 74¢ 100¢ $11 $15 +$4 (+34%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 15? No 82¢ 100¢ $12 $15 +$3 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? No 71¢ 74¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 16? No 72¢ 74¢ $14 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? No 74¢ 74¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 16? No 71¢ 71¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 +$3 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 +$2 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 +$3 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $14 +$6 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 +$2 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 +$2 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$43 +2312%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$84 +2317%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$15 +156%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $16 +$4 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $11 +$4 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 +$3 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $19 +$6 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $11 +$4 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 16? BUY No 71¢ $4 3m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 74¢ $4 11m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 72¢ $2 13m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 74¢ $4 21m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 74¢ $4 32m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 72¢ $4 34m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 38m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 44m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 46m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 75¢ $4 50m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 50m
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Jun BUY No 71¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 16? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 75¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 71¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 79¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 16? BUY No 78¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 83¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 81¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $992.74 · official $992.12 (match) · 3500 history records