Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:39:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x38a0…16e9 sports 1271 markets active 1h ago coverage 1145d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,283 (-7%) realized −$2,268 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate23%292W / 960L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$72est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$109
14 days−$88
30 days+$180
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$1,305
other 31% −$1,106
world 4% −$108
crypto 4% −$285
politics 1% −$230
culture 0% −$41
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -64.8% -68.2% 7% 7% -52.7%
≤30d 73 +23.6% +11.8% 27% 27% -1.1%
≤90d 161 +6.4% -3.7% 25% 25% -9.5%
all 1252 -12.8% -21.1% 23% 22% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 22% -18.2%
10% -28.7% 21% -26.0%
15% -35.6% 21% -33.2%
20% -41.9% 21% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$20 · ×2.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1145d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$2,268
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses292 / 960
Est. fees paid−$72
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1252 / 1271
History coverage1145d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1252 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 54¢ 30¢ $32 $17 −$14 (-45%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+5%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $23 +$97 +428%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $34 −$33 -97%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $27 −$26 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $26 +$47 +182%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $15 +$50 +325%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $6 +$54 +874%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $34 +$47 +139%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 $0 -5%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 +$73 +474%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $42 −$40 -96%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 +$77 +150%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $16 +$32 +193%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$23 +148%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $37 −$36 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$67 +1295%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$106 +207%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 +$51 +335%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 54¢ $32 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 4d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 4d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 5d
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $14 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 5d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 5d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 5d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 5d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $88 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 5d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 5d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 5d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $31 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $11 5d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $11 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $11 5d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 6d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $11 6d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 6d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 6d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $11 6d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 6d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 6d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 6d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 6d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 7d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.18 · official $34.19 (match) · 2493 history records