Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:52:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
38 0x389e…602c other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized −$28 · open +$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +10.1% -0.4% 62% 62% -10.8%
≤30d 8 +10.1% -0.4% 62% 62% -10.8%
≤90d 8 +10.1% -0.4% 62% 62% -10.8%
all 8 +10.1% -0.4% 62% 62% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.4% 62% -10.8%
10% -9.9% 62% -19.3%
15% -18.6% 62% -27.1%
20% -26.6% 38% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$100 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage11d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 42¢ 66¢ $50 $78 +$28 (+56%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $102 +$41 +40%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 21 $26 +$15 +60%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $52 −$50 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$37 +72%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $102 +$47 +46%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 16 $93 +$151 +163%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $102 45h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $26 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $52 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $102 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $102 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $149 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $51 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $93 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.67 · official $125.29 · 17 history records