Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:53:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
38 0x389e…e831 crypto 236 markets active 1h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$77 (+0%) realized +$78 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%226W / 7L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$292per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$227now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$5
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$76
politics 3% −$2
other 2% −$1
sports 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 62 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 174 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 233 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$509) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×21.4 per $1 lost it wins $21.4
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$227
Realized+$78
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses226 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)233 / 236
History coverage228d
Avg bet$292
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 233 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $90 on June 18? No 100¢ 99¢ $115 $114 −$1 (-0%)
Will Solana reach $95 on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Solana dip to $50 on June 18? No 100¢ 99¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 17? Jun 18 $228 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 17? Jun 17 $228 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.45 on June 16? Jun 17 $208 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 on June 15? Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.95 on June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $95 on June 15? Jun 16 $53 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.35 on June 14? Jun 15 $27 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.40 on June 14? Jun 15 $200 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $85 on June 13? Jun 14 $226 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $85 on June 12? Jun 13 $226 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $80 on June 11? Jun 12 $226 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $45 on June 10? Jun 11 $225 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 10? Jun 10 $225 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $85 on June 9? Jun 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 on June 9? Jun 10 $213 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $45 on June 8? Jun 09 $225 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 7? Jun 07 $224 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 6? Jun 06 $224 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $45 on June 5? Jun 06 $59 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.35 on June 5? Jun 06 $55 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $85 on June 5? Jun 06 $105 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $90 on June 5? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.35 on June 4? Jun 05 $223 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 4? Jun 04 $223 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 3? Jun 03 $141 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 3? Jun 03 $82 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $65 on June 2? Jun 03 $140 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 2? Jun 02 $82 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $105 on June 1? Jun 02 $140 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 on May 31? Jun 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $65 on May 31? Jun 01 $62 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $100 May 25-31? Jun 01 $140 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $65 on May 30? May 31 $222 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on May 28? May 29 $137 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.10 on May 28? May 29 $84 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on May 28? May 28 $221 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on May 27? May 27 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on May 27? May 27 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on May 27? May 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on May 27? May 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on May 27? May 27 $413 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 May 18-24? May 25 $48 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.60 May 18-24? May 25 $341 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $100 May 18-24? May 25 $92 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.70 May 18-24? May 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $110 on May 24? May 25 $150 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.10 on May 23? May 24 $93 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.15 on May 23? May 24 $250 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana dip to $50 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $13 1h
Will Solana reach $90 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $115 1h
Will Solana reach $95 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $228 13h
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $228 32h
Will XRP reach $1.45 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $108 2d
Will XRP reach $1.45 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $20 2d
Will XRP dip to $0.95 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 2d
Will Solana reach $95 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $53 3d
Will Solana dip to $50 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $150 3d
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 3d
Will XRP reach $1.35 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $27 4d
Will XRP reach $1.40 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $150 4d
Will XRP reach $1.40 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $50 4d
Will Solana reach $85 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $164 5d
Will Solana reach $85 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $63 5d
Will Solana reach $85 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $126 6d
Will Solana reach $85 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $100 6d
Will Solana reach $80 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $18 7d
Will Solana reach $80 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $208 7d
Will Solana dip to $45 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $225 7d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $225 8d
Will Solana reach $85 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $12 8d
Will Solana dip to $50 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $213 8d
Will Solana dip to $45 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $225 10d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $224 11d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $224 12d
Will Solana dip to $45 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $59 13d
Will Solana reach $90 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $5 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $227.41 · official $227.41 (match) · 512 history records