Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:04:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x389e…5546 crypto 214 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+1%) realized +$14 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate73%150W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$9
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% −$1
other 37% +$8
sports 17% −$10
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -50.0% -54.8% 0% 0% -12.9%
≤30d 10 +3.6% -6.2% 30% 30% -15.8%
≤90d 205 +0.9% -8.7% 73% 53% -9.9%
all 205 +0.9% -8.7% 73% 53% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 53% -9.9%
10% -17.5% 28% -18.5%
15% -25.5% 16% -26.4%
20% -32.8% 10% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized+$14
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses150 / 55
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions9
Markets (closed)205 / 214
History coverage80d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 205 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $25 $17 −$8 (-31%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $12 $17 +$5 (+44%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-18%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+69%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+5%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Yes 54¢ 55¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $102 $0 -0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -22%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 14 $10 $0 -4%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 −$3 -77%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 31 $20 +$20 +97%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland May 31 $41 −$40 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $5 +$9 +170%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $2 −$2 -99%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Sweden May 28 $12 +$9 +72%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland May 26 $8 +$7 +92%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Hungary May 23 $10 +$1 +13%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 20 $1 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 20 $1 $0 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 20 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 20 $1 $0 +16%
World Championships: Germany vs. Switzerland May 18 $10 +$2 +18%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Latvia May 17 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 15 $1 $0 +31%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $1 $0 +20%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? May 08 $4 −$4 -99%
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer May 06 $1 +$1 +119%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $4 +$7 +172%
Harry Kane: Anytime Goalscorer May 06 $1 −$1 -88%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $5 +$1 +14%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer May 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET May 01 $1 +$1 +59%
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha May 01 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe May 01 $2 $0 +23%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Apr 30 $3 $0 +10%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 28 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $4 +$5 +127%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Apr 27 $1 +$1 +80%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Apr 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Apr 27 $2 +$1 +58%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Apr 27 $1 $0 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Apr 27 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Apr 27 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Apr 27 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 27 $1 +$4 +380%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 27 $1 $0 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Apr 27 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 27 $1 $0 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Apr 27 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Apr 27 $1 $0 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $3 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $102 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 22h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 44¢ $4 10d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 12d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 12d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 61¢ $10 12d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $14 13d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 13d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $4 13d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 14d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $28 15d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $12 21d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 24d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 25d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 25d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 25d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 26d
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland BUY Switzerland 53¢ $41 26d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? SELL Yes 53¢ $39 26d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 27d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 74¢ $2 28d
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Sweden BUY Switzerland 47¢ $5 28d
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Sweden BUY Switzerland 68¢ $7 29d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 31d
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland BUY Switzerland 51¢ $8 33d
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 37d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $1 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.37 · official $75.37 (match) · 561 history records