Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:08:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x389a…397d world 270 markets active 0h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$20,631 (-13%) realized −$18,173 · open −$2,458
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%134W / 114L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$608per market
Trades / day26.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$3,496now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,280
7 days−$5,654
14 days−$9,345
30 days−$14,373
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$7,724
finance 15% −$8,608
politics 15% −$10,482
tech 10% −$4,776
other 3% −$991
culture 3% −$2,599
crypto 1% −$1,235
economics 0% +$615
sports 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -22.3% -29.7% 58% 46% -36.8%
≤30d 111 -2.4% -11.7% 55% 49% -23.5%
≤90d 248 -3.2% -12.4% 54% 46% -20.7%
all 248 -3.2% -12.4% 54% 46% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 46% -20.7%
10% -20.8% 29% -28.3%
15% ← realistic here -28.4% 20% -35.2%
20% -35.4% 12% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$681) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$206 vs −$399 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$3,496
Realized−$18,173
Unrealized−$2,458
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses134 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions22
Markets (closed)248 / 270
History coverage55d
Avg bet$608
Trades / day26.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 248 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 70¢ 72¢ $840 $854 +$14 (+2%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 72¢ 36¢ $893 $453 −$440 (-49%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 75¢ 63¢ $450 $376 −$74 (-16%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 67¢ 24¢ $817 $286 −$531 (-65%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 Week of June 15 2026? No 79¢ 92¢ $225 $261 +$36 (+16%)
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 73¢ 36¢ $480 $234 −$246 (-51%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 78¢ 80¢ $200 $206 +$6 (+3%)
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 36¢ 30¢ $200 $165 −$35 (-17%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in June? No 54¢ 80¢ $93 $137 +$45 (+48%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No 72¢ 14¢ $650 $131 −$519 (-80%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 15 above $205? Yes 78¢ 68¢ $80 $71 −$9 (-12%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 15 above $210? Yes 46¢ 24¢ $125 $65 −$60 (-48%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $204 Week of June 15 2026? No 71¢ 28¢ $150 $58 −$92 (-61%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? No 16¢ 36¢ $20 $46 +$26 (+128%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $220 Week of June 15 2026? Yes 33¢ 9¢ $150 $41 −$109 (-73%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $216 Week of June 15 2026? Yes 65¢ 19¢ $120 $35 −$85 (-71%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $85 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 65¢ 88¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+36%)
Will USD be between 1.7M and 1.8M Iranian rials on June 30? Yes 23¢ 6¢ $80 $20 −$60 (-75%)
Will USD be between 1.8M and 1.9M Iranian rials on June 30? Yes 37¢ 7¢ $80 $16 −$64 (-80%)
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during G7 events? Yes 85¢ 52¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-39%)
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? No 44¢ 0¢ $210 $1 −$209 (-99%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 Week of June 15 2026? No 4¢ 0¢ $50 $1 −$49 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in June? Jun 17 $101 +$12 +12%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 16 $575 −$495 -86%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 16 $750 −$532 -71%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? Jun 16 $280 −$280 -100%
Will OPEC crude oil production be above 18 million barrels per day in Jun 16 $1,183 −$1,183 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 16 $1,985 −$1,409 -71%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 16 $5,805 −$1,737 -30%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 16 $3,223 +$112 +4%
Will Trump say "Oil" during G7 events? Jun 16 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 16 $232 +$31 +13%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Jun 16 $131 +$39 +30%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2 Jun 15 $51 +$11 +21%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $205 on June 15? Jun 15 $252 +$48 +19%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 on June 15? Jun 15 $253 +$105 +41%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 13 $1,015 −$326 -32%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 13 $250 +$99 +40%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 13 $504 +$72 +14%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 12 $507 −$416 -82%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 11 $263 +$23 +9%
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 11 $154 +$100 +65%
Will OPEC crude oil production be above 19 million barrels per day in Jun 11 $825 +$274 +33%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-J Jun 11 $200 −$200 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $200 in June? Jun 09 $856 −$856 -100%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-J Jun 09 $540 −$540 -100%
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 08 $112 +$29 +26%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 08 $2,740 +$367 +13%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 1 above $230? Jun 06 $30 −$30 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $210-$215 on the final day of trading of t Jun 06 $300 −$300 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 1 above $225? Jun 06 $223 −$223 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $208 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 06 $555 −$555 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 1 above $215? Jun 06 $530 −$530 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 1 above $220? Jun 06 $1,420 −$1,420 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $208 in June? Jun 06 $1,399 −$1,399 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 05 $630 +$231 +37%
Will OPEC crude oil production be above 20 million barrels per day in Jun 05 $521 +$83 +16%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 04 $4,170 +$1,452 +35%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5? Jun 03 $601 −$175 -29%
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by May 31? Jun 02 $1,513 +$64 +4%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $890 +$214 +24%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 01 $2,490 +$969 +39%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Jun 01 $2,632 +$384 +15%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $3,969 +$1,369 +34%
Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by May 31? Jun 01 $1,615 +$207 +13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 30 $2,161 +$818 +38%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 29 $2,995 +$301 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $1,700 +$200 +12%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? May 28 $300 +$4 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $2,015 +$612 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 Week of June 15 2026? SELL No 89¢ $84 15m
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 35¢ $10 48m
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 67¢ $50 1h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J SELL Yes 95¢ $51 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 67¢ $100 1h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in June? SELL No 88¢ $113 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 67¢ $60 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 5¢ $10 8h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 17¢ $10 8h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 15¢ $10 8h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 3¢ $10 8h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 3¢ $10 8h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 3¢ $10 8h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 19¢ $10 8h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 2¢ $10 16h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 79¢ $202 19h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 79¢ $101 19h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 59¢ $100 25h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 93¢ $50 25h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $12 26h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? SELL No 95¢ $170 26h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 71¢ $50 37h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 15 above $210? BUY Yes 65¢ $25 39h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2 SELL No 92¢ $61 40h
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 30¢ $41 40h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 15 above $205? BUY Yes 85¢ $30 41h
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during G7 events? BUY Yes 85¢ $20 41h
Will Trump say "Oil" during G7 events? BUY Yes 85¢ $20 41h
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? BUY No 23¢ $10 42h
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? BUY No 5¢ $10 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,495.67 · official $3,495.67 (match) · 1613 history records