Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:38:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x3899…452e politics 153 markets active 1h ago coverage 614d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$8,383 (-9%) realized −$8,370 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate52%76W / 71L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$582per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$2,727now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$166
7 days−$212
14 days+$400
30 days+$1,746
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$11,961
tech 19% +$13,116
world 15% −$3,486
politics 13% +$1,681
crypto 9% −$255
sports 7% −$6,524
economics 1% −$1,018
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -4.7% -13.8% 56% 44% -11.5%
≤30d 25 +23.2% +11.5% 68% 60% +2.5%
≤90d 25 +23.2% +11.5% 68% 60% +2.5%
all 147 -8.8% -17.5% 52% 40% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 40% -18.4%
10% -25.4% 32% -26.2%
15% -32.6% 28% -33.3%
20% -39.2% 20% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 62% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$394 vs −$540 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

614d coverage
Net worth$2,727
Realized−$8,370
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses76 / 71
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)147 / 153
History coverage614d
Avg bet$582
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $564 $582 +$18 (+3%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $584 $580 −$4 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 45¢ 42¢ $540 $510 −$30 (-6%)
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $490 $500 +$10 (+2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? No 43¢ 42¢ $473 $467 −$5 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $90 $87 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $540 +$460 +85%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $627 −$626 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $581 +$299 +52%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $894 +$75 +8%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $636 −$636 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $655 −$655 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $698 +$702 +101%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $826 −$816 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $610 −$610 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $654 +$946 +145%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $386 −$386 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $600 +$300 +50%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $396 −$396 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $657 +$843 +128%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $362 +$38 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $549 +$251 +46%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $541 +$259 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $647 +$353 +55%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $446 +$354 +79%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $501 −$497 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $448 +$252 +56%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $427 +$573 +134%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $189 +$211 +112%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $136 +$144 +105%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $185 +$310 +168%
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? Jul 08 $445 +$98 +22%
Will Bill Gates be named in Epstein files? Jul 08 $620 −$620 -100%
Will Bill Clinton be named in Epstein files? Jul 08 $660 −$660 -100%
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31? Jul 08 $1,053 −$1,053 -100%
Did the FBI destroy Epstein files? Jul 08 $1,733 −$1,728 -100%
Will anyone be charged as a result of Epstein file release? Jul 08 $9,994 −$9,994 -100%
Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30? May 04 $600 −$600 -100%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Apr 20 $1,018 −$1,018 -100%
Wisconsin Supreme Court election: Susan Crawford vs. Brad Schimel Apr 02 $6,524 −$6,524 -100%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 01 $5,071 +$2,541 +50%
Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 01 $3,784 −$3,255 -86%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Mar 31 $10,832 −$3,287 -30%
Macbook Air M4 released before April? Mar 06 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Trump say 'crypto' or 'Bitcoin' during the 2025 State of the Unio Mar 05 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Trump say 'Peace' 10+ times during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 05 $1,214 −$1,214 -100%
Will Trump say 'Zelenskyy' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 05 $3,460 +$796 +23%
Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 01 $5,362 +$16,077 +300%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 01 $575 −$558 -97%
Trump declassifies Epstein list in first 100 days? Feb 28 $3,704 +$2,574 +70%
Will Meta have the top AI model on February 28? Feb 25 $9 $0 -0%
Will Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director? Feb 21 $839 −$839 -100%
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Feb 17 $170 −$170 -100%
Will Trump say "Elon" in his next speech? Dec 09 $390 −$390 -100%
Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration? Dec 04 $2,231 −$213 -10%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? Dec 01 $6,778 −$26 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $584 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $37 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $11 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $39 9h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 45¢ $540 24h
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 70¢ $40 30h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $107 32h
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 70¢ $164 32h
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 70¢ $167 32h
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 70¢ $7 33h
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 70¢ $112 33h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 47¢ $564 38h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $520 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $272 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $17 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $246 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 73¢ $504 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 43¢ $8 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 43¢ $43 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 43¢ $2 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 43¢ $2 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 43¢ $2 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 43¢ $15 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 43¢ $15 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 43¢ $2 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 43¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,727.47 · official $2,727.47 (match) · 1585 history records