Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:35:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
38 0x3896…ece6 other 240 markets active 2h ago coverage 535d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,600 (+4%) realized +$2,846 · open −$1,246
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate59%124W / 85L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$3,576now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$204
7 days+$445
14 days+$262
30 days+$321
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 29% +$537
other 25% −$819
tech 21% +$653
world 10% +$780
politics 5% −$77
sports 4% −$109
economics 3% −$251
finance 3% +$542
culture 0% +$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +130.6% +108.7% 70% 60% +36.3%
≤30d 19 +66.6% +50.8% 63% 53% +5.8%
≤90d 40 +18.3% +7.1% 52% 48% -23.6%
all 209 +28.1% +15.9% 59% 51% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.9% 51% -2.8%
10% +4.8% 39% -12.1%
15% -5.3% 32% -20.6%
20% -14.6% 25% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +50% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$92 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

535d coverage
Net worth$3,576
Realized+$2,846
Unrealized−$1,246
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses124 / 85
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions31
Markets (closed)209 / 240
History coverage535d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 209 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $684 $724 +$40 (+6%)
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? No 62¢ 74¢ $600 $712 +$111 (+19%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 85¢ $427 $424 −$3 (-1%)
US x China Military clash before 2027? No 89¢ 93¢ $263 $275 +$13 (+5%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 84¢ 94¢ $168 $189 +$21 (+12%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 82¢ 92¢ $164 $184 +$20 (+12%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 79¢ 86¢ $158 $173 +$15 (+9%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $116 $133 +$17 (+15%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 80¢ 94¢ $100 $118 +$18 (+18%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No 38¢ 34¢ $114 $100 −$14 (-12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $100 $82 −$18 (-18%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 32¢ 70¢ $32 $70 +$38 (+120%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 64¢ $61 $64 +$4 (+6%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? Yes 55¢ 10¢ $333 $57 −$276 (-83%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? No 40¢ 44¢ $49 $53 +$4 (+9%)
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? No 78¢ 100¢ $39 $50 +$11 (+27%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $54 $34 −$20 (-37%)
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $35 $33 −$2 (-6%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 69¢ 30¢ $69 $30 −$40 (-57%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December? Yes 31¢ 6¢ $123 $26 −$97 (-79%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $12 $12 −$1 (-6%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 21¢ 6¢ $40 $11 −$29 (-73%)
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $6 $9 +$2 (+38%)
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $45 $7 −$39 (-85%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $407 $3 −$404 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $39 −$38 -98%
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 26 $20 +$180 +900%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 25 $38 +$122 +322%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $51 +$147 +286%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $135 +$65 +48%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $302 +$64 +21%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $121 −$73 -60%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $111 +$22 +20%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $179 +$16 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $100 +$29 +28%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $225 −$224 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $23 +$65 +281%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $28 −$27 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $150 +$43 +28%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 12 $94 +$9 +10%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $484 +$58 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 25 $96 −$96 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? May 17 $520 +$119 +23%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 17 $300 +$52 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 17 $654 +$349 +53%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 13 $132 +$65 +50%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 12 $170 −$75 -44%
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7? Apr 12 $125 −$125 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 12 $405 −$405 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of January? Apr 12 $491 −$491 -100%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Apr 12 $330 −$84 -26%
Will Kingdom Come: Deliverance II win Game of the Year at the 2025 Gam Apr 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Apr 12 $752 −$752 -100%
Will Google’s Gemini 2.5 Pro win the NOF1.ai competition? Apr 12 $12 −$1 -5%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 12 $70 −$50 -71%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in November? Apr 12 $240 −$240 -100%
Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026? Apr 11 $140 +$43 +31%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 11 $156 +$38 +24%
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? Apr 11 $90 +$60 +67%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 11 $89 +$111 +125%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 11 $127 +$73 +58%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 17 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 16 $126 −$126 -100%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $142 +$58 +41%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 16 $422 +$78 +18%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 11 $413 +$127 +31%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 05 $378 +$22 +6%
Will Claude 5 not be released by February 28, 2026? Mar 02 $246 +$47 +19%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 02 $122 +$78 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $62 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $39 13h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 18h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $31 19h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $6 19h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 19h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 19h
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? SELL No 77¢ $221 31h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 77¢ $58 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 38¢ $37 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $14 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $28 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $25 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $429 2d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? SELL No 77¢ $29 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $135 4d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 82¢ $302 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 21¢ $46 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 25¢ $25 4d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? BUY No 38¢ $117 4d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 48¢ $96 4d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 4d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 4d
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? SELL No 77¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,575.63 · official $3,575.64 (match) · 1314 history records