Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:43:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x3893…8afb crypto 1013 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$57 (+0%) realized −$24 · open +$81
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%478W / 532L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day27.8pace
Fees−$113est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$612now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$765
7 days−$467
14 days+$83
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% −$1,536
sports 30% +$562
other 3% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 112 -12.3% -20.6% 39% 38% -18.0%
≤30d 290 -3.4% -12.6% 47% 46% -8.8%
≤90d 1010 -8.7% -17.4% 47% 47% -13.7%
all 1010 -8.7% -17.4% 47% 47% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.4% 47% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -25.3% 45% -21.9%
15% -32.5% 42% -29.5%
20% -39.1% 40% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$20 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$612
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$81
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses478 / 532
Est. fees paid−$113
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1010 / 1013
History coverage85d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day27.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1010 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $429 $473 +$44 (+10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET Up 48¢ 62¢ $76 $98 +$22 (+29%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 18¢ 28¢ $25 $41 +$16 (+62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 208 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET Jun 18 $83 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET Jun 18 $139 −$136 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $39 −$37 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $19 +$21 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $19 +$21 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10PM ET Jun 18 $7 +$7 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$16 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Jun 17 $76 +$62 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $141 −$136 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $49 −$37 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET Jun 17 $45 +$39 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET Jun 17 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $44 +$36 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$8 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -96%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET Jun 17 $34 −$16 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $81 +$19 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 16 $40 −$14 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET Jun 16 $192 −$167 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $22 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$102 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$49 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET Jun 16 $40 −$8 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET Jun 16 $113 −$9 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$8 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $34 −$32 -96%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $14 −$14 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $61 −$10 -16%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 +$41 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$32 +104%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$59 +279%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET Jun 15 $48 +$49 +102%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $81 +$100 +124%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 +$65 +129%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $24 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $29 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $611.61 · official $611.62 (match) · 3073 history records