Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T15:58:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

38
0x3893…2207
sports · 11 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
−$15 -21%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$7 · open −$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Net worth$28
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)4 / 11
History coverage7d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 7 History 4 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 46¢ 42¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-8%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Vitality 76¢ 64¢ $10 $8 −$1 (-15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 90¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will m0NESY have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 Yes 33¢ 22¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-32%)
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos Olympiacos B.C. 74¢ 86¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner MOUZ 21¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 77¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Real Madrid vs. La Laguna Tenerife Real Madrid 90¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner G2 25¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $12 +$1 +10%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$5 +95%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Real Madrid vs. La Laguna Tenerife Jun 06 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 72% −$13
other 28% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-31.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.6% -8.1% 67% 33% -0.9%
≤30d 4 -23.8% -31.0% 50% 25% -30.5%
≤90d 4 -23.8% -31.0% 50% 25% -30.5%
all 4 -23.8% -31.0% 50% 25% -30.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.0% 25% -30.5%
10% -37.6% 25% -37.1%
15% -43.7% 25% -43.2%
20% -49.2% 25% -48.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.93 · official $28.65 (match) · 16 history records