Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:57:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
38 0x3893…aa1e other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 59d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-1%) realized −$9 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$225per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$396now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$24
14 days−$24
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$5
politics 28% −$9
culture 22% −$2
other 1% −$10
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -18.9% -26.6% 17% 17% -11.1%
≤30d 6 -18.9% -26.6% 17% 17% -11.1%
≤90d 7 -13.6% -21.8% 29% 29% -11.0%
all 7 -13.6% -21.8% 29% 29% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 29% -11.0%
10% -29.3% 14% -19.6%
15% -36.1% 14% -27.3%
20% -42.4% 14% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$396
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage59d
Avg bet$225
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $399 $396 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? Jun 26 $400 −$5 -1%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? Jun 25 $488 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2 +$2 +90%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $497 −$9 -2%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 29 $2 $0 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $400 1h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $395 1h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $400 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 24h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? SELL No 96¢ $487 25h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY No 96¢ $488 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 44h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 80¢ $489 2d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 80¢ $497 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 2d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 84¢ $2 59d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $396.46 · official $396.46 (match) · 15 history records