Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:39:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
38 0x388e…970f politics 131 markets active 1h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-0%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate7%9W / 122L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$263per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$19
politics 35% −$14
sports 6% +$9
world 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
economics 1% −$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 111 -1.0% -10.4% 3% 2% -9.7%
all 131 -1.1% -10.5% 7% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 6% -9.6%
10% -19.1% 5% -18.2%
15% -26.9% 2% -26.1%
20% -34.0% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$1 · ×10.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses9 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)131 / 131
History coverage118d
Avg bet$263
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 131 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 24 $26 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $39 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $34 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $22 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $38 $0 -0%
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 19 $27 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 11 $26 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $29 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $34 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $249 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $226 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $315 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $468 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $254 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $715 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 22 $254 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $483 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $203 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $262 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $474 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $228 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $327 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $268 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $196 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $266 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $228 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $471 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $205 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $235 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $269 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $229 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $489 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $391 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $235 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $193 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $216 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $369 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $202 −$1 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $209 $0 -0%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 03 $177 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $236 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $254 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $254 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $490 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $221 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $636 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $26 1h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $26 25h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 36h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 2d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $34 2d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $34 2d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $22 3d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 3d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $38 3d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $38 4d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 4d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 9d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $42 9d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $42 10d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $30 10d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $30 10d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 13d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 14d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $29 14d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 15d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $34 15d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $34 16d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $24 17d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 17d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $27 18d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $27 18d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $30 24d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 24d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $23 25d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $23 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 396 history records