Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:12:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x388e…24ec weather 464 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$211 (-2%) realized −$211 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate87%398W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day52.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$181now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$21
14 days−$84
30 days−$220
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 63% −$43
sports 26% −$176
other 11% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +32.1% +19.5% 100% 20% -7.7%
≤30d 455 +1.0% -8.6% 87% 11% -11.9%
≤90d 455 +1.0% -8.6% 87% 11% -11.9%
all 455 +1.0% -8.6% 87% 11% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 11% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 3% -20.3%
15% -25.4% 3% -28.0%
20% -32.7% 2% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$181
Realized−$211
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses398 / 57
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions9
Markets (closed)455 / 464
History coverage25d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day52.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 455 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 16? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 16? No 98¢ 98¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? No 98¢ 98¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? No 95¢ 96¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on June 16? No 95¢ 95¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 16? No 98¢ 100¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on June 15? No 96¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 15? No 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? No 97¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5) Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 15? Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 14 $30 +$1 +3%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $24 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 14 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 13? Jun 14 $19 $0 +1%
Spread: Australia (-2.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 13 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 13 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Spread: Paraguay (-2.5) Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 13 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 86°F or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $21 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June Jun 12 $30 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 12 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 44°C or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 9? Jun 12 $30 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 40°C or higher on June 10? Jun 12 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 9? Jun 12 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 83°F or below on June 10? Jun 12 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 12 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 11? Jun 11 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 10 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 10? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 9? Jun 10 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 9? Jun 10 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 9? Jun 10 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on June 9? Jun 09 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 8? Jun 09 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 8? Jun 09 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 75°F or below on June 8? Jun 09 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 8? Jun 09 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 8? Jun 09 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 8? Jun 09 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 9? Jun 09 $30 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? SELL No 1¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $30 8h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $15 8h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $15 9h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $15 9h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $30 10h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $10 10h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $15 13h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $30 13h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $15 13h
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $8 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $15 19h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $30 19h
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $8 19h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $30 22h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $21 22h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $9 22h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $15 23h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $30 29h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $15 29h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $15 29h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $30 31h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $15 31h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $15 32h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $30 32h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $15 33h
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $15 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $180.73 · official $173.57 · 1501 history records