Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:44:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
38 0x388c…526f crypto 187 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$148 (+6%) realized +$164 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate48%88W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$412now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$115
7 days+$43
14 days+$6
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$80
other 32% −$24
crypto 23% −$2
sports 4% +$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -11.5% -20.0% 41% 41% -1.4%
≤30d 183 -16.5% -24.5% 48% 36% -11.3%
≤90d 183 -16.5% -24.5% 48% 36% -11.3%
all 183 -16.5% -24.5% 48% 36% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.5% 36% -11.3%
10% -31.7% 21% -19.8%
15% -38.3% 17% -27.5%
20% -44.4% 14% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$412
Realized+$164
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses88 / 95
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)183 / 187
History coverage39d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 183 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 84¢ 82¢ $236 $231 −$4 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $126 $123 −$3 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $40 $30 −$10 (-24%)
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $27 $27 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $13 −$3 -20%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $16 +$55 +352%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $67 +$29 +43%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $47 +$33 +70%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$45 +291%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $40 −$39 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $33 +$23 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $17 +$11 +62%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 +$7 +21%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $17 −$12 -68%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $16 +$8 +51%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +50%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 17 $61 −$59 -97%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -68%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -66%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +15%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +66%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$7 +649%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $24 +$17 +70%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -26%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 −$6 -42%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $15 −$1 -7%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$2 -18%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$4 +88%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$4 +20%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $31 $0 -1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $299 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $27 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $127 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 11¢ $11 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 68¢ $144 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $70 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $70 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $9 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $76 5h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 5h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 97¢ $96 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $67 8h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $12 8h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $79 8h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $47 22h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $13 22h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $40 27h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 27h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 27h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $33 30h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 30h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 31h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $17 34h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 34h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $412.20 · official $412.24 (match) · 572 history records