Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:34:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x388c…4e65 other 127 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$41 (+0%) realized +$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate8%10W / 116L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$283per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$16
politics 36% −$16
sports 14% +$72
crypto 5% −$2
economics 1% −$1
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 95 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 126 +5.3% -4.7% 8% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 3% -9.4%
10% -13.9% 3% -18.1%
15% -22.2% 3% -26.0%
20% -29.8% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +11% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×17.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses10 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)126 / 127
History coverage132d
Avg bet$283
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $47 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $42 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $32 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $280 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $253 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 26 $196 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $506 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 25 $264 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $433 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $425 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $279 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $267 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $738 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $218 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $266 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $262 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 14 $275 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $204 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $274 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $250 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $206 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $726 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $295 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? May 09 $38 $0 +0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $234 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $265 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $486 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $295 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $771 −$1 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $203 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $226 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $250 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $259 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $287 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $239 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $222 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $263 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $301 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $227 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $282 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $294 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $267 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $222 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $243 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $377 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $285 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $305 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 1h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $47 13h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 20h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 20h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 6d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 20d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 20d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $280 22d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $280 24d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $253 24d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $253 25d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $196 25d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $196 25d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $252 26d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $252 26d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $264 26d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $264 26d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $221 27d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $221 27d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $220 28d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $220 28d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $279 28d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $279 28d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $267 28d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $267 29d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $233 29d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $233 30d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $248 30d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $248 30d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $218 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.98 · official $46.98 (match) · 372 history records