Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:11:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
38 0x3888…770e sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$53 (+35%) realized +$46 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$14
other 41% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +34.0% +21.2% 67% 67% +45.4%
≤30d 9 +34.0% +21.2% 67% 67% +45.4%
≤90d 9 +34.0% +21.2% 67% 67% +45.4%
all 9 +34.0% +21.2% 67% 67% +45.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.2% 67% +45.4%
10% +9.6% 67% +31.5%
15% -1.0% 44% +18.8%
20% -10.7% 33% +7.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +61% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +61% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$5 · ×2.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.48 per $1 lost it wins $4.48
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$46
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)9 / 17
History coverage3d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Paraguay 17¢ 40¢ $5 $12 +$7 (+138%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 46¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 40¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $5 +$13 +262%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 29 $5 +$2 +34%
Panama vs. England: England O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $5 +$1 +24%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 28 $5 +$3 +50%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $5 +$7 +146%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $46 +$41 +90%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 1h
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $5 1h
France vs. Sweden: France O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Sweden: Both Teams to BUY 36¢ $5 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $25 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $5 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners AND Netherland BUY 8¢ $5 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 17¢ $5 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 5h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 74¢ $5 2d
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $5 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 2d
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06 BUY 22¢ $10 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 66¢ $5 2d
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $15 2d
Panama vs. England: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.59 · official $68.24 · 24 history records