Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:31:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
38 0x3886…1192 other 28 markets active 9d ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate43%12W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$2
crypto 31% −$4
sports 17% +$5
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 28 +7.1% -3.1% 43% 29% -11.5%
≤90d 28 +7.1% -3.1% 43% 29% -11.5%
all 28 +7.1% -3.1% 43% 29% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.1% 29% -11.5%
10% -12.4% 25% -20.0%
15% -20.8% 18% -27.7%
20% -28.6% 18% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses12 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage8d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $22 $0 +2%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 $0 -3%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 $0 +14%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 -10%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 -9%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 -9%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$4 +343%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -50%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +24%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +291%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 84¢ $10 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 8d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 75¢ $1 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $1 8d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 9d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $1 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 9d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $1 9d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 70¢ $1 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $1 9d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 9d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 9d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 9d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 50¢ $1 9d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 9d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 9d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 9d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 10d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 10d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $1 10d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 10d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 10d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 10d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 10d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY No 65¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 77 history records