Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:03:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

38 0x3884…8049 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover

Total PnL +$578 (+60%) realized +$584 · open −$6

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip

Net edge-2%after slip

Net WR56%break-even

Win rate56%5W / 4L

Drawdown4%max

Avg bet$68per market

Trades / day12.6pace

Fees−$7est.

Kalshi-fit57%portable

Net worth$292now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +56%

net ROI/market (all)+6.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	+17.5%	+6.3%	56%	56%	+85.2%
≤30d	9	+17.5%	+6.3%	56%	56%	+85.2%
≤90d	9	+17.5%	+6.3%	56%	56%	+85.2%
all	9	+17.5%	+6.3%	56%	56%	+85.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover12.6 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+6.3%	56%	+85.2%
10%	-3.8%	56%	+67.4%
15%	-13.1%	56%	+51.3%
20%	-21.6%	56%	+36.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 64% · top 2 79% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +105% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +18% · $-wt +105% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$122 vs −$7 · ×16.57 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×20.71 per $1 lost it wins $20.71

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$292

Realized+$584

Unrealized−$6

Win rate (resolved)56%

Wins / losses5 / 4

Est. fees paid−$7

Open positions5

Markets (closed)9 / 14

History coverage2d

Avg bet$68

Trades / day12.6

Drawdown4%

Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 9 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	70¢	69¢	$170	$169	−$1 (-1%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	Belgium	45¢	42¢	$101	$96	−$5 (-5%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	Yes	20¢	20¢	$17	$18	+$0 (+2%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran?	Yes	14¢	14¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran?	Yes	10¢	10¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-5%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Jun 21	$61	+$45	+74%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 21	$46	+$66	+143%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia?	Jun 21	$10	−$9	-89%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia?	Jun 21	$17	−$14	-82%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$247	+$391	+158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Jun 20	$16	+$14	+91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Jun 20	$1	−$1	-97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$153	+$95	+62%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$30	1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	BUY Belgium	46¢	$20	1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	SELL Belgium	45¢	$81	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$101	1h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran?	BUY Yes	10¢	$5	1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran?	BUY Yes	14¢	$5	1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	SELL Spain	98¢	$53	1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL Yes	100¢	$69	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$40	2h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	SELL Yes	19¢	$17	2h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	BUY Belgium	45¢	$51	2h
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	SELL Spain	93¢	$53	2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL Yes	87¢	$43	2h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia?	SELL Yes	1¢	$1	2h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia?	SELL Yes	3¢	$3	2h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	BUY Belgium	44¢	$12	4h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	BUY Belgium	44¢	$102	4h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$36	4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	38¢	$46	11h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia?	BUY Yes	7¢	$10	11h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia?	BUY Yes	16¢	$17	11h
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Spain	54¢	$61	11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	38¢	$247	22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$30	41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$16	41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	BUY Up	17¢	$5	41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	BUY Down	57¢	$1	41h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$104	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$48	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $292.03 · official $292.05 (match) · 31 history records