Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:29:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
38 0x3883…6bb0 crypto 542 markets active 1h ago coverage 694d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$12,079 (+1%) realized +$15,695 · open −$3,616
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate90%431W / 46L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$2,528per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$45,522now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$387
14 days+$370
30 days+$1,616
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 33% +$13,972
crypto 33% +$20,104
economics 13% +$5,756
other 8% −$1,295
world 6% −$23,988
tech 4% −$5,443
finance 2% +$2,753
sports 0% −$86
culture 0% +$111
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +8.7% -1.7% 100% 14% -4.2%
≤30d 53 +4.5% -5.5% 94% 40% -3.8%
≤90d 137 +2.0% -7.8% 93% 28% -4.3%
all 477 -1.7% -11.1% 90% 18% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 18% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 2% -17.2%
15% -27.3% 0% -25.2%
20% -34.5% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$1,059) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$152 vs −$1,089 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

694d coverage
Net worth$45,522
Realized+$15,695
Unrealized−$3,616
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses431 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions65
Markets (closed)477 / 542
History coverage694d
Avg bet$2,528
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 65 History 477 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 81¢ $5,456 $5,180 −$276 (-5%)
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 82¢ $3,999 $3,814 −$185 (-5%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? No 81¢ 76¢ $3,234 $3,021 −$213 (-7%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? No 85¢ 86¢ $2,978 $3,003 +$25 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 72¢ 58¢ $2,682 $2,169 −$513 (-19%)
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? No 85¢ 92¢ $1,803 $1,969 +$165 (+9%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 85¢ 80¢ $2,049 $1,932 −$117 (-6%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 91¢ 98¢ $1,325 $1,431 +$106 (+8%)
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 88¢ $1,241 $1,239 −$2 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? No 86¢ 89¢ $1,145 $1,192 +$46 (+4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 92¢ 94¢ $1,110 $1,134 +$24 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No 84¢ 84¢ $1,088 $1,098 +$11 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 65¢ 32¢ $2,203 $1,069 −$1,134 (-51%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? No 84¢ 86¢ $800 $813 +$13 (+2%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? No 67¢ 22¢ $2,411 $789 −$1,622 (-67%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $768 $778 +$10 (+1%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 94¢ 99¢ $718 $752 +$33 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 92¢ 100¢ $550 $600 +$50 (+9%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 85¢ 95¢ $513 $567 +$55 (+11%)
Will Solana dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? No 82¢ 88¢ $505 $538 +$34 (+7%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 88¢ 89¢ $531 $533 +$2 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 95¢ 82¢ $575 $499 −$76 (-13%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No 70¢ 72¢ $430 $440 +$11 (+2%)
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? No 85¢ 90¢ $366 $389 +$23 (+6%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $100-$115 in June? No 96¢ 99¢ $355 $368 +$13 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $3,860 +$56 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $669 +$231 +34%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $572 +$28 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 17 $280 +$18 +7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 17 $565 +$30 +5%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? Jun 16 $291 +$8 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? Jun 16 $284 +$14 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 15 $249 +$51 +20%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,387 +$15 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Jun 14 $104 +$13 +12%
Will Silver (SI) settle at >$115 in June? Jun 13 $79 +$8 +10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 13 $1,070 +$119 +11%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,400-$5,800 in June? Jun 13 $280 +$19 +7%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 12 $715 +$133 +19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $258 −$258 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $289 −$289 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Jun 10 $839 +$53 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 09 $261 +$39 +15%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in June? Jun 09 $271 +$29 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 09 $549 +$51 +9%
Will Solana reach $200 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $550 +$49 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $1,961 +$127 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1,759 +$388 +22%
Will Solana reach $220 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $15 +$1 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $522 +$78 +15%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in June? Jun 03 $206 −$201 -98%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in May? Jun 02 $95 +$14 +15%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? Jun 02 $283 +$17 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 02 $261 +$39 +15%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 02 $282 +$18 +6%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 02 $278 +$22 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 02 $272 +$28 +10%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $292 +$8 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 02 $222 +$78 +35%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 02 $280 +$20 +7%
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? Jun 02 $266 +$34 +13%
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $268 +$32 +12%
Will Solana dip to $70 in May? Jun 02 $286 +$14 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 02 $269 +$31 +12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 02 $230 +$70 +30%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? Jun 02 $278 +$22 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Jun 02 $280 +$20 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $534 +$66 +12%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? May 31 $287 +$10 +4%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in May? May 30 $224 +$24 +11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 30 $274 +$26 +10%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in May? May 30 $265 +$35 +13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 30 $265 +$35 +13%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 28? May 30 $273 +$27 +10%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 19? May 27 $274 +$26 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $268 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 95¢ $285 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $261 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 75¢ $228 1h
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $218 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $261 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $112 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $249 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $258 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $269 1h
Will Silver (SI) settle at $100-$115 in June? SELL No 100¢ $1 24h
Will Silver (SI) settle at $100-$115 in June? SELL No 100¢ $39 30h
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $17 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $43 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $217 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $298 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $596 5d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $59 5d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $20 5d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $45 5d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $32 5d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $119 5d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $24 5d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? SELL No 100¢ $299 5d
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $61 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $252 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $266 5d
Will Silver (SI) settle at $100-$115 in June? SELL No 100¢ $55 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,387 7d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $116 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45,522.27 · official $45,522.95 (match) · 2066 history records