Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:12:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x3880…63e6 crypto 51 markets active 0h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$568 (-13%) realized −$528 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate44%22W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$119
7 days−$247
14 days−$247
30 days−$247
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% −$297
other 24% −$260
world 6% −$60
politics 3% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -15.2% -23.3% 46% 37% -24.8%
≤30d 35 -15.2% -23.3% 46% 37% -24.8%
≤90d 35 -15.2% -23.3% 46% 37% -24.8%
all 50 -15.7% -23.7% 44% 32% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 32% -22.4%
10% -31.0% 26% -29.9%
15% -37.7% 18% -36.6%
20% -43.8% 18% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$36 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized−$528
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses22 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage160d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 40¢ 28¢ $126 $86 −$40 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$6 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$8 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $189 −$100 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $291 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $247 −$35 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $298 −$51 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$3 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 12PM ET Jun 12 $77 −$40 -52%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jun 12 $33 −$16 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $269 +$25 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $102 −$29 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $51 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 10 $9 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$1 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down on January 15? Jan 15 $114 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 15? Jan 15 $192 −$13 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 15 $20 +$4 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 15 $92 −$50 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 15 $100 −$81 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 15 $179 −$156 -87%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 15 $100 −$92 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 14 $100 −$39 -39%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 14 $163 +$316 +194%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 13 $39 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 13? Jan 13 $500 +$20 +4%
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in January 2026? Jan 13 $127 +$11 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 9? Jan 11 $515 −$105 -20%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Jan 09 $125 −$20 -16%
Khamenei public appearance by Friday? Jan 09 $123 −$122 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $0 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $7 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $7 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $6 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $4 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 0¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.17 · official $86.17 (match) · 280 history records