Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:37:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x3880…ab7d sports 1310 markets active 2d ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 98d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$11,745 (-10%) realized −$11,745 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate60%780W / 530L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day29.7pace
Fees−$614est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$79
14 days−$384
30 days−$367
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$6,542
crypto 17% −$617
other 1% +$499
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -33.6% -39.9% 36% 30% -17.0%
≤30d 138 -13.4% -21.7% 47% 44% -28.5%
≤90d 1066 -5.9% -14.9% 61% 51% -13.3%
all 1310 -6.6% -15.5% 60% 50% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 50% -14.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 40% -22.7%
15% -31.0% 28% -30.1%
20% -37.7% 19% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$63 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11,745
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses780 / 530
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$614
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1310 / 1310
History coverage99d ⚠
Avg bet$93
Trades / day29.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1310 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $31 −$31 -99%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $29 +$1 +5%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 14 $4 −$3 -95%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $31 +$22 +68%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $25 −$21 -83%
Everton de Viña del Mar vs. CD Palestino: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Everton de Viña del Mar vs. CD Palestino: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $25 +$9 +36%
Everton de Viña del Mar vs. CD Palestino: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $25 +$24 +94%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $89 −$14 -16%
CD Coquimbo Unido vs. O'Higgins FC: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $23 +$6 +26%
CD Coquimbo Unido vs. O'Higgins FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $25 −$14 -55%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $25 +$7 +28%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic Jun 13 $29 +$12 +43%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Emiliana Arango vs Anna Bondar Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $25 +$9 +34%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Mia Pohankova vs Tamara Korp Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$7 +29%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $39 +$9 +24%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $5 −$1 -22%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 12 $5 +$3 +60%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $34 +$25 +74%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $14 −$3 -24%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $49 +$11 +22%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $13 −$5 -38%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $20 −$3 -14%
Stuttgart Open (Doubles): Bublik/Kyrgios vs Paul/Seggerman Jun 11 $9 −$9 -99%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 11 $48 −$1 -3%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 11 $10 −$1 -6%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 11 $25 −$1 -4%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 11 $16 +$1 +9%
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Emilio Nava Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $10 +$3 +34%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $10 −$4 -43%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Mia Pohankova Jun 11 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $44 +$33 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -9%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $10 −$4 -44%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 10 $42 −$10 -25%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 10 $1 $0 -1%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $60 +$3 +4%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $31 2d
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien SELL Learner Tien 100¢ $30 2d
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien BUY Learner Tien 95¢ $29 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 24¢ $4 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $32 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 65¢ $21 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $31 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 10¢ $4 3d
Everton de Viña del Mar vs. CD Palestino: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 70¢ $25 3d
Everton de Viña del Mar vs. CD Palestino: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $34 3d
Everton de Viña del Mar vs. CD Palestino: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 89¢ $49 3d
Everton de Viña del Mar vs. CD Palestino: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $25 3d
Everton de Viña del Mar vs. CD Palestino: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $25 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $25 3d
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic SELL Emma Raducanu 100¢ $75 3d
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic BUY Emma Raducanu 99¢ $74 3d
CD Coquimbo Unido vs. O'Higgins FC: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $25 3d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron SELL Marcos Giron 100¢ $16 3d
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic BUY Iva Jovic 30¢ $4 3d
CD Coquimbo Unido vs. O'Higgins FC: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 51¢ $11 3d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron SELL Marcos Giron 88¢ $14 3d
CD Coquimbo Unido vs. O'Higgins FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $25 3d
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic BUY Iva Jovic 71¢ $10 3d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 74¢ $23 4d
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler SELL Martin Landaluce 56¢ $12 4d
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler BUY Martin Landaluce 60¢ $25 4d
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic SELL Daniil Medvedev 93¢ $42 4d
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic BUY Daniil Medvedev 64¢ $29 4d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Emiliana Arango vs Anna Bondar BUY Emiliana Arango 10¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records