Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:57:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x387e…3653 crypto 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9,241 (-45%) realized −$9,195 · open −$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate16%5W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$536per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$124now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$135
7 days+$135
14 days+$135
30 days+$135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$6,627
crypto 48% −$2,647
other 1% −$11
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-50.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +36.9% +23.9% 40% 40% +10.8%
≤30d 5 +36.9% +23.9% 40% 40% +10.8%
≤90d 5 +36.9% +23.9% 40% 40% +10.8%
all 31 -45.1% -50.3% 16% 13% -52.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.3% 13% -52.3%
10% -55.1% 6% -56.9%
15% -59.4% 3% -61.1%
20% -63.4% 3% -64.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -58% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$144 vs −$383 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$124
Realized−$9,195
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses5 / 26
Open positions7
Markets (closed)31 / 38
History coverage146d
Avg bet$536
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $360 in June? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 80¢ 76¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-6%)
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $25 $19 −$6 (-24%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on June 27? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $25 $17 −$8 (-33%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $25 $14 −$11 (-45%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? Yes 46¢ 30¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-34%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? Yes 10¢ 5¢ $25 $12 −$13 (-51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 25? Jun 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $26 +$4 +18%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $231 −$11 -5%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 25 $251 −$21 -8%
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Jun 25 $90 +$162 +180%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 4? Feb 02 $290 −$290 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 3? Feb 02 $283 −$78 -27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 6? Feb 02 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on February 4? Feb 02 $1 $0 -32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 2? Feb 02 $100 −$71 -71%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 2? Feb 02 $67 −$67 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 2? Feb 02 $160 −$142 -89%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 2? Feb 01 $80 +$11 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 2? Feb 01 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 1? Feb 01 $705 +$202 +29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 4? Feb 01 $264 −$264 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 3? Feb 01 $298 −$298 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 4? Feb 01 $140 −$140 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on February 4? Feb 01 $121 −$121 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 4? Feb 01 $260 −$260 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 3? Feb 01 $3,404 +$342 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jan 31 $42 −$42 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jan 31 $953 −$212 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jan 31 $158 −$88 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jan 31 $319 −$82 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jan 31 $1,650 −$745 -45%
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 31 $9,441 −$6,751 -72%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 31, 6AM ET Jan 31 $263 −$188 -72%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? Jan 30 $300 −$5 -2%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Jan 30 $100 −$6 -6%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Jan 30 $100 −$5 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 25? SELL No 83¢ $5 18m
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 25? SELL No 83¢ $30 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 25? BUY No 81¢ $5 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 25? BUY No 68¢ $26 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 80¢ $25 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 46¢ $21 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 10¢ $27 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 1¢ $27 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 4¢ $27 3h
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $360 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $26 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 8¢ $27 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 52¢ $220 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $231 7h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 24¢ $230 7h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 25¢ $251 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 4? BUY Yes 38¢ $205 143d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 3? SELL Yes 9¢ $205 143d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 6? BUY Yes 25¢ $9 143d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on February 4? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 143d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 2? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 143d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 2? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 143d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 2? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 143d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 2? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 143d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 2? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 143d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $7 143d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 2? SELL Yes 8¢ $29 143d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 2? SELL Yes 1¢ $18 143d
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $90 144d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 2? SELL Yes 45¢ $91 144d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 2? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 144d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.30 · official $125.55 (match) · 287 history records