Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:42:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

38
0x387d…9192
other · 13 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$486 +33%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$692 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$1
Realized+$692
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses9 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit8%
Chart Positions 1 History 12 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$692
7 days+$692
14 days+$692
30 days+$692
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Up 85¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $69 +$33 +48%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $286 +$194 +68%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $122 −$1 -1%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $41 +$35 +85%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$24 +59%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $123 +$49 +40%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $204 −$11 -5%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $40 −$40 -99%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$5 +13%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $282 +$230 +82%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $42 +$149 +354%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $201 +$22 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 100% +$692
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $41 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $28 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $101 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $42 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $42 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $40 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $41 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $41 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $41 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $41 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $41 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $41 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $41 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $40 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $41 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $40 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $41 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $41 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $40 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $40 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $101 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $41 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $35 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $42 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $201 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $1 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+39.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +54.6% +39.9% 75% 75% +32.4%
≤30d 12 +54.6% +39.9% 75% 75% +32.4%
≤90d 12 +54.6% +39.9% 75% 75% +32.4%
all 12 +54.6% +39.9% 75% 75% +32.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +39.9% 75% +32.4%
10% ← realistic here +26.5% 58% +19.8%
15% +14.3% 58% +8.2%
20% +3.1% 42% -2.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.02 · official $1.02 (match) · 39 history records