Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:52:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x387d…e6dd world 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 479d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$35 (+2%) realized +$35 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate52%14W / 13L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$1
other 30% +$4
sports 10% +$25
tech 7% $0
crypto 6% +$4
politics 6% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 11 +0.0% -9.5% 36% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 11 +0.0% -9.5% 36% 0% -9.5%
all 27 +3.6% -6.2% 52% 7% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 7% -7.4%
10% -15.2% 7% -16.2%
15% -23.4% 7% -24.3%
20% -30.9% 0% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$0 · ×6.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.42 per $1 lost it wins $11.42
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

479d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses14 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage479d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 91¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $45 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $53 −$1 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $90 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $44 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $4 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $24 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $88 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $44 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $33 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $40 $0 +1%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -9%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $1 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 07 $2 +$1 +50%
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 18–25? Apr 22 $84 $0 +0%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Apr 21 $8 $0 -0%
Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? Apr 21 $85 $0 -0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $96 −$1 -1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Apr 02 $97 −$1 -1%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Apr 01 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? Mar 31 $96 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 25? Mar 26 $92 +$4 +4%
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 21-28? Mar 25 $90 +$3 +3%
Will Trump say "Crooked Joe" or "Sleepy Joe" during Digital Asset Summ Mar 22 $88 +$2 +3%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Mar 20 $87 $0 +0%
Holy Cross vs. Navy Mar 04 $59 +$27 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $45 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $18 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $18 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $35 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $10 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $45 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $8 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $6 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $45 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $45 15d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $44 15d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $44 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $5 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $40 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $45 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $0 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $3 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $1 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $1 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $1 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $24 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $24 16d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $44 17d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $44 17d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $8 17d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $37 17d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $44 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.59 · official $44.59 (match) · 82 history records