Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:01:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
38 0x3879…5ad1 crypto 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$11 (+8%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate62%15W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$5
other 7% −$9
sports 2% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +2.5% -7.2% 62% 58% -14.0%
≤30d 24 +2.5% -7.2% 62% 58% -14.0%
≤90d 24 +2.5% -7.2% 62% 58% -14.0%
all 24 +2.5% -7.2% 62% 58% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 58% -14.0%
10% -16.1% 54% -22.2%
15% -24.2% 38% -29.7%
20% -31.6% 17% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses15 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage15d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +68%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +33%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$8 +246%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $4 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 2h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 5h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $11 5h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 7h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 7h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 54 history records