Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:46:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

38
0x3879…d8c3
crypto · 858 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$54 +25%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$37 · open −$32
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$80
Realized+$37
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses54 / 415
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions117
Markets (closed)469 / 858
History coverage5d
Avg bet$0
Trades / day672.3
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 117 History 469 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days+$37
14 days+$37
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 78¢ 76¢ $16 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+50%)
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+50%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+50%)
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+50%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+50%)
Will Matt Sahr win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+50%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+50%)
Will Waymo have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+50%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+50%)
Will ByteDance have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Perplexity AI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-50%)
Will Revolut have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-50%)
Will Bradley Barcola be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+43%)
Will Stripe have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Databricks’ market cap be between $100B and $125B at market close on IPO day? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Australia? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Will Robert Whittaker be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Space FDV above $15M one day after launch? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 12 $1 $0 +29%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 20, 9AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 2AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -200%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 1? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the New York Islanders win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 12 $1 −$2 -200%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Aldrich Potgieter win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 1PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 12PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 5PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 6AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +3161%
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 12AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 17-20, 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 30, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 19, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the Pacific Division? Jun 12 $0 −$1 -200%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 60% +$8
crypto 14% +$44
politics 10% −$5
tech 8% +$2
sports 4% +$12
world 2% +$5
economics 1% +$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Robert Whittaker be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, BUY Yes 0¢ $0 18m
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 21m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $600B and $700B at market close on BUY Yes 0¢ $0 21m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $600B and $700B at market close on BUY Yes 0¢ $0 22m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $600B and $700B at market close on BUY Yes 0¢ $0 22m
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 31m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $600B and $700B at market close on SELL Yes 0¢ $0 32m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $600B and $700B at market close on BUY Yes 0¢ $0 35m
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPACE? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 35m
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 36m
Will Victoria Mboko be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 59m
Will Databricks’ market cap be between $100B and $125B at market close BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $600B and $700B at market close on BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $600B and $700B at market close on BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Australia? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Australia? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 2h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $600B and $700B at market close on SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $600B and $700B at market close on BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-35.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 469 -28.5% -35.3% 12% 10% -5.8%
≤30d 469 -28.5% -35.3% 12% 10% -5.8%
≤90d 469 -28.5% -35.3% 12% 10% -5.8%
all 469 -28.5% -35.3% 12% 10% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover672.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.3% 10% -5.8%
10% ← realistic here -41.5% 10% -14.8%
15% -47.1% 9% -23.0%
20% -52.3% 8% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.50 · official $80.50 · 3500 history records