Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:04:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

38
0x3877…be61
crypto · 1675 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$19 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$20 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses829 / 670
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1499 / 1675
History coverage22d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day144.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1499 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$592
7 days−$448
14 days−$233
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Down 33¢ 46¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+41%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$2 -167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$2 -195%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$602
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $7 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 722 -29.3% -36.0% 36% 34% -41.1%
≤30d 1499 +6.8% -3.3% 55% 53% -9.6%
≤90d 1499 +6.8% -3.3% 55% 53% -9.6%
all 1499 +6.8% -3.3% 55% 53% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover144.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.3% 53% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -12.6% 50% -18.3%
15% -21.0% 46% -26.2%
20% -28.8% 39% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.41 · official $1.41 (match) · 3500 history records