Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:54:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x3873…d8e5 world 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 299d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate36%17W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% −$3
other 22% +$1
politics 19% $0
culture 3% $0
sports 2% $0
finance 1% +$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 14 +0.3% -9.2% 43% 7% -10.0%
≤90d 14 +0.3% -9.2% 43% 7% -10.0%
all 47 -3.7% -12.9% 36% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 4% -9.7%
10% -21.2% 2% -18.3%
15% -28.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

299d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses17 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage299d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 91¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $29 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $29 −$1 -3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $1 $0 -8%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $1 $0 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 02 $45 −$3 -6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $2 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $41 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $42 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 30 $85 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $38 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $8 +$1 +13%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $45 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Dec 27 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 14 $10 +$2 +25%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Oct 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 22 $7 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 23 to September 30, Oct 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 27 $6 $0 +0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30? Sep 27 $6 $0 +1%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 27 $1 $0 -6%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 27 $5 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Sep 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 02 $5 $0 +3%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 26 $7 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 26 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in August? Aug 25 $3 $0 -7%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? Aug 25 $26 $0 +1%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 25 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 23 $28 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 23 $31 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Aug 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? Aug 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 22 $38 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $37 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $23 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $5 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $29 7h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 14d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 14d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 14d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 14d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 79¢ $36 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $36 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 16d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 16d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $25 16d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $9 16d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $19 16d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $42 17d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $41 17d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $42 18d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $20 18d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $22 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $41 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $12 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.31 · official $37.31 (match) · 152 history records