Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:03:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
38 0x386b…dc10 crypto 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 514d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate82%54W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$5
other 5% $0
sports 1% −$10
politics 0% $0
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 14 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 21 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 66 -1.3% -10.7% 82% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

514d coverage
Net worth$116
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses54 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)66 / 67
History coverage514d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $116 $116 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14? Jun 18 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $115 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in May 2026? Jun 03 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 30? May 30 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? May 28 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 25? May 27 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 19? May 22 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on April 27? Apr 27 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 6? Apr 06 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 2? Apr 02 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 27? Mar 30 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 25? Mar 25 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on March 23? Mar 23 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 20? Mar 22 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 19? Mar 19 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 13? Mar 17 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 11? Mar 11 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 10? Mar 10 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 9? Mar 09 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 7? Mar 08 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 3? Mar 04 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 27? Feb 27 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 24? Feb 24 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 20? Feb 23 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 19? Feb 19 $112 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) close above $660 on February 17? Feb 18 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 17? Feb 17 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 16? Feb 16 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 15? Feb 15 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 14? Feb 14 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 12? Feb 12 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 11? Feb 11 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 10? Feb 10 $111 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 World Series? Aug 03 $2 $0 -0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? Jul 02 $1 $0 -17%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 31 $1 $0 -0%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by over 8%? May 31 $1 $0 +0%
US recession in 2025? May 31 $2 $0 -15%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.09 in April? May 08 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $116 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $116 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $116 46h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $116 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $116 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $116 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $116 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $116 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $115 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $115 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $115 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $115 22d
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $115 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $115 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $115 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $114 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $114 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on April 27? BUY No 100¢ $114 61d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $114 82d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $114 86d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $114 88d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 27? BUY No 100¢ $114 91d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $114 92d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $114 94d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $114 96d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 20? BUY No 100¢ $113 99d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $113 100d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 13? BUY No 100¢ $113 106d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 11? BUY No 100¢ $113 107d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 10? BUY No 100¢ $113 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.35 · official $116.35 (match) · 137 history records