Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:46:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

38
0x3869…e45c
crypto · 22 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
+$62 +13%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$51 · open +$11
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$22
Realized+$51
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses12 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)20 / 22
History coverage402d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 2 History 20 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$72
7 days−$72
14 days−$72
30 days−$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 46¢ $6 $16 +$10 (+174%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 30¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+13%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $43 −$39 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$13 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$6 +60%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $47 +$13 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$7 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $42 −$35 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$6 +29%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $15 −$11 -71%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $9 −$8 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $18 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $13 +$13 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the next Pope be from North America? May 08 $1 +$44 +4440%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? May 08 $37 +$9 +24%
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? May 08 $155 +$69 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 53% +$139
crypto 43% −$67
sports 4% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 1h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 100¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $14 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+71.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -16.1% -24.0% 53% 53% -32.4%
≤30d 17 -16.1% -24.0% 53% 53% -32.4%
≤90d 17 -16.1% -24.0% 53% 53% -32.4%
all 20 +89.8% +71.7% 60% 60% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +71.7% 60% -2.4%
10% +55.3% 55% -11.7%
15% +40.3% 30% -20.2%
20% +26.5% 25% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.17 · official $22.17 (match) · 79 history records