Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:27:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x3869…2d67 other 157 markets active 0h ago coverage 588d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,660 (-9%) realized −$1,412 · open −$248
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%55W / 84L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$57est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$910now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$93
7 days+$264
14 days+$264
30 days+$295
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$1,330
sports 38% +$817
world 6% −$486
politics 3% +$167
culture 2% +$129
tech 1% −$107
crypto 1% −$134
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +35.0% +22.1% 47% 47% +8.7%
≤30d 26 +9.5% -0.9% 42% 42% -2.4%
≤90d 61 +3.8% -6.1% 38% 38% -3.9%
all 139 -1.8% -11.1% 40% 36% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 36% -13.6%
10% -19.6% 34% -21.9%
15% -27.4% 33% -29.4%
20% -34.5% 30% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$60 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

588d coverage
Net worth$910
Realized−$1,412
Unrealized−$248
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses55 / 84
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions8
Markets (closed)139 / 157
History coverage588d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $275 $292 +$17 (+6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $199 $229 +$30 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $199 $162 −$37 (-19%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $103 $102 −$1 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $121 $72 −$49 (-40%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 11¢ 10¢ $54 $51 −$3 (-6%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $7 $1 −$6 (-83%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 44¢ $200 $1 −$199 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $33 $0 -1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $31 +$58 +188%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $12 −$4 -30%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $41 +$40 +98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$21 +205%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $15 +$3 +20%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +67%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$10 +197%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $108 −$1 -1%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$9 +184%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $189 +$176 +93%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $10 +$16 +157%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $154 −$16 -10%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $644 −$15 -2%
Spread: Denmark (-1.5) Jun 06 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $12 +$8 +66%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $27 −$5 -19%
Will Poland win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $3 −$3 -97%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $2,103 +$353 +17%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 24 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 24 $366 −$251 -68%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $133 −$13 -10%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 21 $132 −$8 -6%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 21 $11 +$19 +180%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $120 +$81 +67%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $20 +$11 +53%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $133 +$89 +67%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Trump Insult Xi this week? May 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? May 12 $51 −$50 -97%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $110 +$73 +66%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 07 $39 +$63 +163%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $9 +$13 +146%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? May 06 $20 −$20 -100%
The Day: Naoya Inoue vs. Junto Nakatani May 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 28 $12 +$31 +267%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 24 $4 −$2 -46%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 24 $49 +$29 +60%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $88 +$46 +52%
GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026? Apr 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $110 +$95 +86%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL 59¢ $33 10m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $104 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY 58¢ $33 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 BUY 39¢ $6 8h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $19 11h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $13 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY 58¢ $61 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY 32¢ $22 21h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 24h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 24h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $16 24h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $25 24h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $19 28h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 38¢ $9 31h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 46¢ $2 31h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 54¢ $10 31h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $24 31h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $32 35h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $8 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 2d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $19 2d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 3d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 33¢ $5 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $41 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 41¢ $18 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 32¢ $10 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY 50¢ $41 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $910.15 · official $1,009.15 · 2381 history records