Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:04:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x3868…7ecf sports 49 markets active 4d ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,427 (-22%) realized −$1,427 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%10W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$121est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$432
14 days−$529
30 days−$937
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$1,405
other 9% −$157
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-34.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -56.4% -60.6% 20% 20% -57.8%
≤30d 37 -18.7% -26.4% 24% 24% -24.8%
≤90d 49 -27.1% -34.0% 20% 20% -32.1%
all 49 -27.1% -34.0% 20% 20% -32.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.0% 20% -32.1%
10% -40.3% 20% -38.6%
15% -46.1% 20% -44.5%
20% -51.4% 20% -50.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$243 vs −$102 · ×2.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,427
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses10 / 39
Est. fees paid−$121
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage36d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $111 −$107 -96%
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $111 −$107 -96%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $122 +$100 +82%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series Jun 22 $79 −$76 -97%
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout Jun 22 $50 −$49 -97%
LoL: FlyQuest vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Honor of Kings: Royal Never Give Up vs eStar Pro - Game 3 Winner Jun 21 $4 −$4 -96%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $34 −$32 -96%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $156 −$152 -97%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $62 +$95 +153%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 19 $28 −$27 -96%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $72 −$70 -97%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 18 $90 −$87 -97%
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As Jun 18 $102 −$12 -12%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $500 −$488 -98%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am Jun 18 $300 +$302 +101%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $82 +$341 +413%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 18 $109 −$106 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $270 −$12 -5%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 17 $300 −$290 -97%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $70 +$298 +426%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $175 +$94 +54%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 −$16 -16%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 17 $100 −$6 -6%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $252 −$246 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 16 $390 −$378 -97%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $301 −$291 -97%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $90 +$151 +168%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $300 −$289 -97%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $380 +$912 +240%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $251 +$129 +51%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 02 $17 −$16 -97%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs TeamDk (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 01 $119 −$115 -97%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $201 −$196 -97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $200 −$80 -40%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner May 22 $14 −$13 -97%
Dota 2: Nix Team vs Stray Team (BO3) - BetBoom Streamers Battle Group May 21 $101 −$98 -98%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs M80 (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 20 $14 −$14 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TYLOO (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 20 $4 +$10 +231%
LoL: Estral Esports vs RED Academy (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante Playoff May 18 $105 −$101 -96%
LoL: Estral Esports vs RED Academy - Game 2 Winner May 18 $100 −$97 -97%
LoL: Estral Esports vs RED Academy - Game 1 Winner May 18 $105 −$101 -97%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - DreamLeague Group B May 18 $89 −$86 -97%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of December? May 18 $25 −$6 -24%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 18 $60 −$7 -12%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of December? May 18 $25 −$8 -32%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - DreamLeague Group B May 18 $106 −$103 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $111 4d
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni $111 4d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL L1ga Team 54¢ $222 4d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY L1ga Team 28¢ $122 4d
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series BUY KOLESIE 31¢ $79 4d
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Mentality Monster 40¢ $50 4d
Honor of Kings: Royal Never Give Up vs eStar Pro - Game 3 Winner BUY Royal Never Give Up $4 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under $34 5d
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner BUY summer bear 37¢ $156 6d
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner SELL summer bear 100¢ $156 6d
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner BUY summer bear 38¢ $62 6d
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY Amaru Gaming 10¢ $28 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 28¢ $72 7d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 39¢ $90 8d
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As SELL Carstensz 34¢ $90 8d
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Carstensz 37¢ $102 8d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 52¢ $500 8d
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am SELL Amaru Gaming 100¢ $602 8d
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Amaru Gaming 48¢ $300 8d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China SELL Vici Gaming 100¢ $423 8d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 19¢ $82 8d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 35¢ $4 8d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 41¢ $109 8d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $257 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $68 9d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Flame Team 26¢ $300 9d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner SELL Flame Team 100¢ $368 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $201 9d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 18¢ $70 9d
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Vici Gaming 100¢ $269 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 73 history records