Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:35:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
38 0x3865…4480 other 74 markets active 2h ago coverage 554d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$19 (+0%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate25%18W / 54L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$263per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 71% −$14
politics 13% −$7
other 13% −$4
crypto 1% +$1
sports 1% +$40
culture 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +5.7% -4.4% 20% 20% -5.3%
≤30d 19 +1.4% -8.3% 16% 5% -8.8%
≤90d 60 +4.4% -5.5% 23% 15% -8.6%
all 72 +3.6% -6.3% 25% 12% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 12% -9.4%
10% -15.3% 12% -18.1%
15% -23.5% 10% -26.0%
20% -31.0% 10% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$2 · ×3.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

554d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses18 / 54
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)72 / 74
History coverage554d
Avg bet$263
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $62 $62 −$0 (-0%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $16 +$4 +29%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $15 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $20 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $22 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $16 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $14 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $21 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $21 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $22 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 02 $44 $0 +0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $23 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $129 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $22 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $15 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $16 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $14 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $96 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $95 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $93 $0 -0%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $103 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $221 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $218 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $111 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $108 $0 -0%
Will Jack Draper win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 02 $106 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $106 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $112 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $112 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 25 $110 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $109 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $112 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $112 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $116 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $106 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $113 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $110 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 16 $117 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $108 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $115 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 14 $111 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $109 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $9 +$6 +62%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $6 +$7 +104%
Heat vs. Raptors Apr 08 $7 +$6 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $31 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $16 24h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $15 26h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $15 27h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $19 2d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $20 2d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $20 2d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $20 3d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $62 4d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $22 6d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $16 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $16 8d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 10d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 10d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 13d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 13d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 14d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 14d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $15 15d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $15 16d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $22 16d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $22 16d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $23 18d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $23 18d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $23 20d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 20d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $22 20d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 20d
Will Solana reach $110 in May? BUY No 100¢ $26 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.67 · official $93.67 (match) · 240 history records