Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:38:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

38
0x3865…fcbe
sports · 192 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$8,601 -22%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,670 · open −$56
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4,459
Realized−$3,670
Unrealized−$56
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses320 / 136
Whale WR (big bets)35%
Est. fees paid−$561
Open positions230
Markets (closed)456 / 192
History coverage47d
Avg bet$200
Trades / day40.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 230 History 456 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$791
7 days+$781
14 days+$661
30 days−$5,169
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Sara Bejlek vs Panna Udvardy Sara Bejlek 72¢ 50¢ $246 $171 −$75 (-31%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Counter-Strike: BESTIA Academy vs HereWeGoAgain (BO3) - ESL Challenger League South America Cup #3 Playoffs HereWeGoAgain 54¢ 50¢ $99 $91 −$7 (-7%)
Madrid Open: Joao Fonseca vs Marin Cilic Joao Fonseca 78¢ 50¢ $133 $85 −$48 (-36%)
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Jakub Mensik vs Fabian Marozsan Jakub Mensik 68¢ 50¢ $90 $66 −$24 (-26%)
BMW Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Giustino vs Andrea Pellegrino Andrea Pellegrino 51¢ 50¢ $64 $63 −$1 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs RED Canids (BO3) - ESL Challenger League South America Cup #4 Playoffs Yawara Esports 46¢ 50¢ $48 $53 +$4 (+9%)
Will Jared Moskowitz be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23? No 47¢ 99¢ $25 $53 +$28 (+111%)
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 95¢ 93¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 96¢ 94¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 82¢ 77¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Counter-Strike: Reign Above vs Marsborne (BO3) - ESL Challenger League North America Cup #4 Playoffs Reign Above 46¢ 50¢ $34 $37 +$3 (+8%)
Will New York Mets win the 2026 NL East title? No 69¢ 99¢ $25 $36 +$11 (+44%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison? No 66¢ 92¢ $25 $35 +$10 (+40%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 82¢ 86¢ $33 $35 +$1 (+4%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? No 38¢ 50¢ $25 $33 +$8 (+32%)
Will Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 NL East title? No 65¢ 85¢ $25 $33 +$8 (+31%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 93¢ 94¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+0%)
Will Oliver Adams Larkin be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23? No 78¢ 96¢ $25 $31 +$6 (+23%)
Will Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? No 55¢ 64¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+17%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison? No 89¢ 98¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+10%)
Will Maxx Crosby play for Chicago Bears next? No 91¢ 100¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+10%)
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? No 56¢ 60¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Sara Bejlek vs Panna Udvardy Jun 14 $246 −$75 -31%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA Academy vs HereWeGoAgain (BO3) - ESL Challenger Jun 14 $99 −$7 -7%
Madrid Open: Joao Fonseca vs Marin Cilic Jun 14 $133 −$48 -36%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Jakub Mensik vs Fabian Marozsan Jun 14 $90 −$24 -26%
BMW Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Giustino vs Andrea Pellegrino Jun 14 $64 −$1 -2%
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs RED Canids (BO3) - ESL Challenger Le Jun 14 $48 +$4 +9%
Counter-Strike: Reign Above vs Marsborne (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Jun 14 $34 +$3 +8%
Celtics vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 14 $25 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs playersclub (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Jun 14 $40 −$19 -46%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $1 $0 -11%
Solana Up or Down - March 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +33%
XRP Up or Down - March 9, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +17%
XRP Up or Down - March 9, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - March 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +35%
Solana Up or Down - March 3, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $0 +$1 +289%
Solana Up or Down - March 7, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +21%
XRP Up or Down - March 25, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $0 +$1 +122%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +56%
Solana Up or Down - March 8, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +32%
Solana Up or Down - February 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +52%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +290%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +40%
Solana Up or Down - March 3, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - March 5, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - March 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +144%
Solana Up or Down - March 21, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +147%
XRP Up or Down - March 6, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +62%
Solana Up or Down - March 9, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $0 +$1 +147%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +83%
XRP Up or Down - March 4, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +17%
Solana Up or Down - March 7, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +63%
Solana Up or Down - March 24, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +179%
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 89% −$3,590
other 8% −$12
crypto 2% +$7
politics 0% −$36
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 57¢ $270 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 93¢ $0 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $1,120 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 93¢ $0 1h
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY Gen.G 42¢ $4 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 93¢ $0 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 45¢ $20 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 30¢ $137 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 93¢ $0 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 42¢ $279 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 8¢ $33 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 22¢ $98 2h
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) SELL Gen.G 37¢ $21 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 93¢ $0 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 93¢ $0 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 93¢ $0 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 93¢ $0 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 93¢ $0 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 93¢ $0 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 93¢ $0 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 93¢ $0 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 93¢ $0 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 93¢ $0 3h
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY Gen.G 54¢ $337 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $2 9h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 84¢ $352 12h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs SELL XLG Gaming 100¢ $895 12h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner BUY Cloud9 45¢ $2 13h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $4 14h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY XLG Gaming 32¢ $299 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 299 +38.9% +25.7% 88% 64% +13.4%
≤30d 375 +26.0% +14.0% 76% 54% -30.6%
≤90d 456 +21.0% +9.5% 70% 51% -18.1%
all 456 +21.0% +9.5% 70% 51% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover40.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.5% 51% -18.1%
10% ← realistic here -1.0% 38% -25.9%
15% -10.5% 31% -33.1%
20% -19.3% 26% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,458.63 · official $4,232.57 · 3500 history records